Because the reliever market picked up during the last week, two right-handers, each former closers, discovered new properties within the Central divisions. First, final Wednesday, Paul Sewald agreed to a one-year cope with the Cleveland Guardians. Then, on Sunday, Ryan Pressly waived his no-trade clause to ensure that the Houston Astros to ship him to the Chicago Cubs for the ultimate assured 12 months of his contract.
Whereas each of those pitchers are possible previous their peaks by way of stuff, they’ll look to proceed being contributors with their new golf equipment. Let’s look at the potential impression of those strikes and focus on how the 2 pitchers will match into the bullpens of their new groups.
Sewald Joins Elite Cleveland Bullpen
Coming off a down 12 months relative to his earlier three seasons, Sewald’s cope with the Guardians is for one 12 months and $6 million, with a $10 million mutual choice for 2026. The transfer solidifies the center a part of their bullpen, which already was the most effective within the majors. With Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, and Hunter Gaddis anchoring the group, Sewald will occupy a lesser position than he’s held over the previous couple of years. That’s not a nasty factor for him, as he can work to return to type with out the strain of getting to ship in high-leverage innings.
As velocities have elevated over time, and hitters have tailored to them, the margins for error for pitchers residing within the low-90s band have grown thinner and thinner. What we noticed from Sewald final season is an effective instance of what occurs when pitchers with such a profile lose even only one tick on their fastballs.
From 2021-23, a three-year stretch throughout which Sewald was one of many higher relievers in baseball, his four-seamer ranged from 92.2 mph to 92.5 mph. It was extraordinarily constant on that entrance. Then, in 2024, that quantity dropped all the way down to 91.4 mph on common, and with that, his efficiency additionally dropped. Here’s a fast abstract of how Sewald’s efficiency on his heater regressed final season:
Paul Sewald 4-Seamer, 2021-24
Season
xwOBA
Whiff%
Avg. Top
Avg. Horizontal Launch
2021
.269
33.0%
2.77
-3.83
2022
.297
29.5%
2.91
-3.71
2023
.264
28.4%
2.90
-3.70
2024
.325
24.3%
3.08
-3.60
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
As his fastball velocity fell final 12 months, Sewald noticed a pointy lower in its effectiveness by each whiffs and total efficiency. This might be associated to the pitch’s location and its launch angle; during the last 4 seasons, he’s been throwing his fastball progressively greater and better within the zone and releasing it nearer to the center of the pitcher’s mound. Mix that with a dip in velocity and, instantly, the pitch was simply extra regular than it had been previously.
One other drawback for Sewald final 12 months was his sweeper, the pitch that was most accountable for turning him right into a high-leverage reliever upon becoming a member of the Mariners in 2021. His total numbers with it recommend it was nonetheless a weapon — he held opponents to a .196 common (.214 xBA) and a .214 wOBA (.258 xwOBA) towards it — however a better look tells a distinct story.
Throughout his aforementioned three-year stretch of excellence, he was snug throwing his sweeper to each lefties and righties as a option to preserve them off his fastball. In every of these three seasons, he threw his sweeper at the very least 45% of the time towards righties and at the very least 35% of the time when going through lefties, and it was efficient towards each side. That’s particularly essential as a result of Sewald is usually a two-pitch pitcher. Final 12 months, nonetheless, lefties teed off on his sweeper. Examine this out:
Paul Sewald Sweeper Splits, 2021-24
Season
Total xwOBA
xwOBA vs. RHH
xwOBA vs. LHH
2021
.256
.248
.275
2022
.204
.201
.209
2023
.248
.230
.272
2024
.258
.218
.369
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
So what modified? Maybe a few of it may be attributed to his diminished fastball velocity, which has minimize the speed hole between his fastball and sweeper to eight.3 mph, down from 9.7 in 2022. Besides, the velo distinction between the 2 pitches was additionally 8.3 mph in 2023, and that season each pitches have been nonetheless efficient towards lefties and righties. The higher challenge right here appears to be the identical factor that threw off his fastball: his launch level, which additionally shifted extra towards the center of the mound when throwing his sweeper. In consequence, he struggled to command his sweeper in 2024, as you’ll be able to see in these two warmth maps. The primary one is from 2023, the second from 2024.
He began throwing the pitch extra within the center plate and fewer usually out of the zone. Even with lesser command, he might nonetheless preserve righties at bay along with his sweeper as a result of the pitch breaks away from them. In opposition to lefties, although, he has much less margin for error along with his location. Sweepers that stay within the zone towards lefties break properly into their bat paths. That’s not a recipe for achievement.
It’s price noting that a few of Sewald’s struggles in 2024 might be injury-related, as he handled each neck and indirect accidents that would’ve induced his dip in velocity. These illnesses may also clarify his change in location and horizontal launch level, because the neck and indirect muscle groups are particularly essential for a pitcher’s upper-body mechanics. Sewald turns 35 in late Could, so a few of his diminished stuff might be attributed to getting older, but when he’s wholesome, we must always count on him to have some type of rebound — even when he doesn’t get again to the height efficiency from his days with the Mariners.
Pressly Takes Over as Cubs Nearer
For many of the offseason, the Astros have been making an attempt to commerce Pressly to shed some wage, and as they revived their efforts to re-sign Alex Bregman final week, shifting Pressly appeared to grow to be a good higher precedence. In fact, Houston has not but introduced again Bregman, however both method, buying and selling Pressly gave the Astros extra monetary flexibility.
Houston despatched over $5.5 million to cowl Pressly’s wage this season, however nothing if his contract vests for 2026. The Cubs despatched again Juan Bello, a 20-year-old pitching prospect who was just lately ranked no. 31 on the Cubs’ prospect listing. Bello is a 35+ FV beginning pitcher who, in accordance with our prospect writers Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice, “has sufficient projectability and current stuff to be forecast in a depth starter position, however he’ll must harness his secondaries within the zone extra usually to constantly get extra superior hitters out and switch over a lineup.”
The 36-year-old Pressly had been a precious member of the bullpen because the Astros traded for him in late July 2018, and through the identical three-year stretch during which Sewald shined, Pressly emerged as one of many high closers within the American League. Nevertheless, Houston’s signing of Josh Hader earlier than final season relegated Pressly to a setup position and finally made him expendable this offseason. Astros GM Dana Brown mentioned earlier right this moment that the Hader signing and Pressly’s corresponding demotion within the bullpen pecking order induced a “fracture” in his and Pressly’s relationship. Now with the Cubs, Pressly is predicted to return to closing video games.
Just like Sewald, Pressly is coming off a season with a notable lower in velocity, from 94.7 mph in 2023 to 93.8 mph final 12 months. His diminishing fastball didn’t precisely come as a surpsise, although. In 2022, batters posted a .402 xwOBA towards his four-seamer, and in response, he minimize its utilization from 32.9% that 12 months all the way down to 23.1% in 2023. He leaned extra on his slider, which for years has been his finest pitch by run worth by a large margin. It’s odd, then, that he used his four-seamer extra usually than some other pitch in 2024. This pitch combine shift didn’t repay, as opponents slugged .500 towards his heater with a .371 wOBA and a .365 xwOBA, in comparison with their .333 SLG, .276 wOBA, and .271 xwOBA towards his slider. I think about Chicago will get him again to throwing primarily sliders once more subsequent season. For some extra context, here’s a three-year snapshot of Pressly’s Stuff+ and utilization for his three primary pitches:
Ryan Pressly Stuff+ and Utilization, 2022-24
Season
Fastball Stuff+
Fastball Utilization
Slider Stuff+
Slider Utilization
Curveball Stuff+
Curveball Utilization
2022
122
32.9%
169
36.7%
128
26.9%
2023
126
23.1%
179
40.0%
156
26.4%
2024
99
33.3%
152
28.9%
130
24.9%
Relievers who change groups on the lookout for bounce backs are at all times enjoyable tales to comply with. Each Sewald and Pressly are within the later phases of their careers however have a possibility to be essential contributors on contending golf equipment. I’ll be taking note of any potential changes they make come spring time.