Aaron Schatz, the godfather of the favored DVOA metric, simply launched the 2024 version of the FTN Soccer Almanac. That is the second yr in a row that this treasure trove of superior analytics has been printed via the FTN Fantasy platform, following the unhappy collapse of Soccer Outsiders.
Having learn via the Seattle Seahawks chapter (plus supplemental materials), I’ve jotted down some notable statistics and key factors on both aspect of the ball that will affirm your priors or go away you asking extra questions. For what it’s value, I’ve additionally taken a look on the Baltimore Ravens chapter due to the arrival of head coach Mike Macdonald, however I’ll go away that for an additional time.
Let’s get going!
Offense
The Seahawks had a large disparity in play-action vs. straight dropback passing
When the Seahawks used play-action passing they had been a drive, averaging a powerful 9.1 yards per play. When it was time for straight dropback? Simply 5.8 yards per play. Seattle and the Baltimore Ravens had the most important DVOA differential (by an enormous margin, too) when it got here to PA vs. non-PA.
What’s attention-grabbing is that the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Cincinnati Bengals, and Miami Dolphins are all within the top-10. Widespread theme amongst these groups, in addition to the Seahawks? The offensive coordinators/playcallers are both Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVay, or a disciple of Shanahan or McVay. This isn’t uniform, as Matt LaFleur’s Inexperienced Bay Packers had been really worse when utilizing PA.
I feel we will infer that Seattle’s third down struggles concerned numerous apparent passing conditions, and the outcomes had been typically ugly.
Kenneth Walker is particular
Solely Breece Corridor (77) and Christian McCaffrey (77) broke extra tackles than Kenneth Walker (72). His damaged deal with fee of 29 % was additionally third-best amongst all offensive gamers. He might get dinged for improvising/going off-script a bit an excessive amount of, however who can blame him when…
The Seahawks speeding assault was the worst it’s been since 2017
Final season was Seattle’s worst rush DVOA for the reason that traditionally unhealthy 2017 group. The offensive line allowed a excessive stuff fee (twenty sixth) on the line of scrimmage. Seattle ranked within the top-half for second-level and open discipline yards, however should you don’t ever get there within the first place you then’re screwing over Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. Each deal with spots had been a large number by way of Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), comprehensible given the accidents at each positions.
DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba carried the YAC
Tyler Lockett’s yards after catch per reception was simply 2.7, his worst over the previous three seasons. In the meantime, DK Metcalf rose to five.6, greater than double what he managed in 2022 when he was (a minimum of to me) used nearly like a possession receiver. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was 5.8, however that retains in thoughts what number of of his routes had been at or behind the road of scrimmage and designed for yards after catch. The issue for JSN was he was not efficient on out routes, one thing you hope can enhance with extra time on the follow discipline with Geno Smith. Metcalf, in the meantime, was among the many top-20 receivers in DVOA (worth per goal) and DYAR (whole worth).
The very best cross protector is now not on the workforce
Final yr I wrote about how Damien Lewis had the bottom strain fee allowed on your entire Seahawks offensive line. His 1.5% strain fee was an enchancment from 2023 and third greatest amongst all guards (2nd amongst left guards). It isn’t a coincidence that he was wanted by the Carolina Panthers, and he’s technically the one offensive lineman John Schneider has ever drafted whose first post-Seahawks contract averaged a minimum of $10 million/yr.
Charles Cross’ strain fee elevated from his rookie season, which is regarding, whereas Phil Haynes, Jake Curhan, and Stone Forsythe had been strain machines relative to their positions. You’ll be able to perceive why George Fant was introduced again as a extra stabilizing drive.
Was Geno Smith really higher in 2023?
Geno’s uncooked statistics had been down from 2022, and the most important lulls the offense skilled make it appear implausible that Geno Smith didn’t regress from his first season as Seahawks starter. And but… his DVOA was greater than 2022 (10% vs. 7.9%) and he was nonetheless within the top-third amongst all certified beginning quarterbacks.
Right here’s what the almanac needed to say:
By our numbers, Smith was even higher final yr than he was in 2022, displaying that his shock return to prominence two years in the past was no fluke. Sure, Geno’s uncooked numbers went down—completion fee, landing fee, yards per try, et cetera. However Smith confronted a way more troublesome slate of defenses in 2023 than he did in 2022 and we give him credit score for not turning again right into a pumpkin.
The offensive line was injured/regressed closely and the defensive schedule included the elite San Francisco 49ers protection (on a brief week after struggling an harm), the top-rated Cleveland Browns, Mike Macdonald’s Baltimore Ravens, and the turnover-feasting Dallas Cowboys.
I absolutely perceive should you lean the opposite means and imagine absolutely the elite QBs can overcome these obstacles, but it surely does put into perspective a few of his statistical performances. I’m not completely persuaded but additionally imagine Geno wasn’t as mediocre because the stats indicated.
Protection
Pete Carroll’s obsession with not getting overwhelmed deep (as soon as once more) got here on the expense of getting killed on brief passes
One of many few positives concerning the 2023 Seahawks protection was how they defended deep passes. Seattle was tenth towards throws that traveled 16 or extra air yards. That’s advantageous and dandy and one of many common strengths of this protection. The issue is that they repeatedly get drilled on beneath stuff; they had been twenty eighth by DVOA towards brief passes after rating thirty second in 2022.
For perspective, the Baltimore Ravens had been thirty first vs. deep passes in 2022 beneath Mike Macdonald. By 2023 they improved to second and had been additionally seventh towards brief passes.
It barely mattered whether or not the Seahawks generated strain or not
Once we did this metric overview final season, the Seahawks had been tenth by DVOA when pressuring the quarterback and twenty fourth with out strain. So a minimum of there was one thing constructive when Seattle was capable of collapse the pocket.
The 2023 Seahawks had been a low level. They weren’t any good whether or not they bought house or didn’t.
DVOA with strain: -48.9% (twenty ninth)DVOA with out strain: 41.1% (twenty fifth)
In the meantime, the Baltimore Ravens had been 1st by DVOA with strain and drop all the way in which all the way down to 2nd with out strain.
Seahawks tackling was a horror present
No workforce was worse at getting the ball-carrier to the bottom than the Seahawks. Seattle led the league with 154 damaged tackles, which is a serious change from their above-average efficiency in 2022. Riq Woolen was 4th amongst all cornerbacks in damaged tackles with 12, and I suppose that’s a sort statistic since a whiff is technically not a damaged deal with.
Quandre Diggs and Woolen each had missed deal with charges north of 20 %.
Riq Woolen’s struggles had been largely tackling and penalties, not giving up completions
Whereas Riq’s second season was disappointing in comparison with his excellent rookie marketing campaign, it wasn’t as a result of he abruptly was giving up big catches on a weekly foundation. His success fee* when focused was 51%, similar to his quantity final season. Devon Witherspoon was greatest on the workforce at 56%. The place Woolen fell aside was the aforementioned missed tackles, but additionally penalties. Whether or not the penalties had been justified or not, Woolen was dinged for 9 accepted flags and 122 penalty yards. Solely the Atlanta Falcons’ A.J. Terrell gave up extra defensive cross interference yards than Woolen’s 102.
Between the missed tackles, the penalties, and the blown coverages that gained’t at all times present up on stat sheets, Woolen’s miscues had been unfold elsewhere and must be cleaned up if he’s to recapture his rookie type.
(“Success Fee” Definition: The share performs of concentrating on this participant on which the offense didn’t have a profitable play. This implies not solely incomplete passes and interceptions, but additionally brief completions which don’t meet our baselines for achievement – 45% of wanted yards on first down, 60% on second down, 100% on third or fourth down.)
Devon Witherspoon is wonderful
Solely two rookies completed within the top-20 in passes defensed: Devon Witherspoon and the Detroit Lions security Brian Department. Witherspoon was tied for fifth with 16 PDs, made all of the extra spectacular by the truth that he missed three video games but was nonetheless essentially the most focused nook on the workforce. His common yards per cross allowed was simply 6.1 yards, and his common depth of goal was solely 9.1 yards. Opposing QBs weren’t eager on difficult Witherspoon down the sector all that a lot.
Boye Mafe’s second yr leap was actual
The one Seahawks participant within the top-20 in pressures was Mafe, whose 54 mixed sacks + hits + knockdowns was just one behind Myles Garrett and tied for tenth with Haason Reddick, Montez Sweat, and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Bobby Wagner nonetheless had important worth as a run stopper
The Seahawks run protection was a large number, however one of many few shiny spots was present Washington Commanders linebacker and Seattle legend Bobby Wagner. Whereas he might not be in prime athletic form anymore, he nonetheless supplied Seattle with 13 run tackles for loss (third within the NFL) and a mean achieve of simply 2.9 yards on run stops. The issue? Everybody else on that listing had not more than 90 tackles. Wagner had 116, indicative of the lopsided snap counts in favor of Seahawks opponents.
There’s a complete lot extra however we don’t have all day and that is already a protracted put up.
If in case you have any extra questions you possibly can ask me within the feedback part! I’ll most likely have extra articles primarily based on the almanac date. And should you’d reasonably simply learn it your self, you should buy the FTN Soccer Almanac right here.
