Fantasy baseball managers routinely face the query: Ought to we consider in a participant’s sizzling begin, or is it a mirage destined to fade?
Two gamers lighting up field scores early this yr — Spencer Torkelson of the Tigers and Ben Rice of the Yankees — supply compelling circumstances to look at. Each have turned heads this April, however their underlying profiles and crew contexts could recommend totally different paths ahead.
Torkelson, the previous No. 1-overall draft choose, has lengthy tantalized fantasy managers together with his prodigious energy potential. After a few uneven seasons, he’s off to a blistering begin, already launching bombs at a tempo that evokes his 30-home-run marketing campaign from 2023.
Sure, the strikeout charge stays excessive — hovering round 30 p.c — however we’re not overly involved, as Torkelson has made tangible adjustments to his mechanics and method on the plate, and the outcomes are exhibiting.
This isn’t simply blind optimism. His batted-ball knowledge backs up the breakout. Torkelson’s common exit velocity and hard-hit charge have spiked, and he’s pulling the ball within the air extra persistently — a recipe for dwelling run success at Comerica Park and past.
The changes he has made, reportedly flattening his swing path and staying extra selective early in counts, have unlocked the uncooked energy that made him a prime prospect. Certain, the whiffs are a purple flag for batting common, however in a fantasy panorama that more and more prioritizes energy, a .240 hitter with 35-plus homer upside is gold. If he maintains even 80 p.c of this manufacturing, he’s a top-10 first baseman by season’s finish. We’re shopping for the recent begin — strikeouts be damned.
In the meantime in The Bronx, the rookie Rice has emerged as a Statcast darling, posting numbers that make sabermetric lovers drool. His exit velocities, barrel charge and anticipated slugging proportion all sit within the elite percentiles — assume prime 5 p.c throughout the board.
Rice has mashed his manner into the Yankees’ lineup, capitalizing on accidents to Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu with a barrage of extra-base hits. For fantasy managers who snagged him off the waiver wire, he has been improbable, however is that this sustainable?
You’ll be able to consider in Rice’s bat. The underlying metrics are too pristine to dismiss as a fluke. He went 40-20 with a .285 common over 152 minor-league at-bats and has but to essentially decelerate within the majors. His plate self-discipline — low chase charges paired with a knack for exhausting contact — suggests a excessive ground, too.
The most important query mark isn’t expertise, however alternative. Stanton and LeMahieu shall be again, and the Yankees’ crowded lineup might squeeze Rice’s taking part in time. If he retains raking, although, the Bombers might need no alternative however to seek out him at-bats, maybe shifting him to DH or first base. For now, journey the recent hand — he’s too good to bench.
Sizzling begins are difficult, however Torkelson’s mechanical overhaul and Rice’s elite Statcast profile give us confidence. Imagine in each — simply control the Yankees’ depth chart..
Howard Bender is the pinnacle of content material at FantasyAlarm.com. Observe him on X @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Present” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports activities channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all of your fantasy baseball information and recommendation.
