INTRO: The Bucs have a much-needed bye this weekend, and there’s loads to debate with the crew needing to only about win out the remainder of the season as a way to qualify for the playoffs. How the season ends will decide Todd Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay, nevertheless it looks like offensive coordinator Liam Coen isn’t going wherever. Get pleasure from this week’s SR’s Fab 5!
FAB 1. Liam Coen’s Future With The Bucs
It appeared bleak for Todd Bowles final yr. The pinnacle coach’s job was on the road presently final yr because the Bucs had been 4-6 previous to a loss at Indianapolis in Week 12 to fall to 4-7. To Bowles’ credit score, Tampa Bay gained 5 of its final six video games to complete 9-8 and win one other division championship whereas saving Bowles’ job within the course of.
Right here had been are once more, and the expectation for Bowles this yr is to indicate progress, in response to the Glazers. However what precisely does that does that imply? The Glazers weren’t particular when requested on the NFL annual assembly in March.
Bucs OC Liam Coen and HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Progress possible means successful 10 video games within the common season – after successful 9 final yr – and at the very least one other playoff berth. The Glazers would favor that include a fourth straight NFC South championship, however the Bucs are presently three video games behind the division-leading Falcons proper now and don’t management their very own future.
So getting in as a 10-game wild card and successful on the highway looks like a should for Bowles to maintain his job. With a really favorable schedule forward popping out of the bye, 10 wins does appear attainable until the Bucs blow it in a sport they need to win towards the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, Cowboys or Saints.
Whereas there’s a curiosity about Bowles’ future in Tampa Bay shifting ahead, what Bucs followers are actually concerned about the way forward for offensive coordinator Liam Coen.
It’s throughout social media channels like X and it’s a continuing query and matter within the Pewter Report Podcasts.
What’s going to occur to Coen if Bowles is fired after the 2024 season?
That’s a totally comprehensible query that deserves some consideration, proper?
As a lot as Bucs followers appreciated offensive coordinator Dave Canales final yr, they completely love Coen.
As they need to.
Coen’s offense was scoring 30 factors per sport at the beginning of the season till he misplaced star extensive receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in a 41-31 loss to Baltimore on Monday Night time Soccer. Even with out Evans and Godwin over the subsequent two weeks, Tampa Bay’s offense nonetheless scored 24 factors towards Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis. The Bucs additionally put up 20 versus the 49ers final week.
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Picture by: USA At this time
Oh, and Coen additionally has resurrected the Bucs’ long-dead operating sport partly along with his hiring of offensive line coaches Kevin Carberry and Brian Picucci. No marvel he’s the darling of the Tampa Bay fan base proper now.
I’ve received some excellent news to share with you. Don’t fear.
Coen isn’t going wherever.
Both the Bucs flip their season round (once more) and get to the playoffs and Bowles stays with Coen as his play-caller, or they don’t make the progress the Glazers count on and Bowles is fired. Then, Coen possible will get promoted to move coach at Bowles’ expense.
Even when the crew makes the playoffs and does nicely and the Bucs initially determine to maintain Bowles and different groups need to interview Coen for his or her head teaching vacancies, I might see the Glazers step in and take away Bowles and promote Coen.
Let me be clear. I don’t have any inside details about the Glazers’ plans nor have I talked to basic supervisor Jason Licht about this (not that he would share any future plans anyway).
However what I do have is 29 years value of expertise masking Tampa Bay because the Glazers purchased the crew in 1995, which was my first yr on the Bucs beat. I’ve seen this film earlier than and I’ve a reasonably good thought about what’s prone to occur.
Former Bucs HC Raheem Morris and Mike Tomlin – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
In January of 2009, the Glazers fired head coach Jon Gruden (and basic supervisor Bruce Allen) 17 days after the tip of the 2008 season. Partly as a result of Bucs possession had misplaced religion in Gruden, but in addition as a result of defensive backs coach Raheem Morris, who was in line to be the crew’s defensive coordinator and change Monte Kiffin, was getting curiosity across the league.
Denver had interviewed the 33-year outdated Morris for the crew’s head teaching job and the Glazers had been afraid of dropping what they noticed as the subsequent, younger Mike Tomlin. At the least that’s how possession considered Morris, whose mentor was Tomlin when he was the Bucs’ defensive backs coach in Tampa Bay from 2001-05.
So Gruden was fired and changed by Morris.
In 2015, the Bucs had simply spent the No. 1 total draft decide on quarterback Jameis Winston, who had a promising rookie season alongside offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. When head coach Lovie Smith, who was additionally the defensive play-caller, went 6-10 after a 2-14 season in first yr on the helm, the Bucs fired Smith and promoted Koetter to the function of head coach. The Glazers and Licht prioritized continuity on offense with Koetter and Winston persevering with to work collectively.
It looks like these situations is enjoying out once more, doesn’t it?
Coen is 39 years outdated and is changing into thought to be one of many younger, up-and-coming play-callers across the league, and with good motive. He’s brilliant, artistic, adaptive and spent years studying below Sean McVay out in Los Angeles.
Bowles is about to show 61 and has presided over one of many worst defenses within the NFL this yr. It’s a protection that’s comprised of three first-rounders, three second-rounders, three third-rounders and a few Day 3 hits. There’s loads of expertise that isn’t being coached and developed correctly.
Bucs OC Liam Coen and QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
The Glazers had been terrified of dropping the subsequent Tomlin again in 2009, and I’ve a sense they’d be terrified of dropping the subsequent McVay in Coen the way in which issues or going.
I additionally do not know if Coen thinks he’s able to be a head coach and even desires to tackle that problem proper now. He could be like Canales and leap on the first alternative, understanding that these alternatives don’t come round usually. Or Coen could be like Detroit’s Ben Johnson, who’s pleased being the Lions offensive coordinator in the meanwhile and inching nearer to a Tremendous Bowl look in Detroit.
I might assume that Coen would need the chance to remain in Tampa Bay and proceed to work with Baker Mayfield, a really proficient offensive line, and an offense that has loads of ability gamers in Evans, Godwin, tight finish Cade Otton and a trio of stud operating backs in Bucky Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
And I feel that occurs in 2025 – both as Bowles’ offensive coordinator, the subsequent coach’s offensive coordinator or maybe within the function of head coach changing Bowles if the Bucs fail to make the playoffs.
The Glazers aren’t silly. Liam Coen isn’t getting away from Tampa Bay.
FAB 2. There’s No Cause – On Paper – The Bucs Ought to End Worse Than 6-1
The Bucs’ possibilities of successful video games and snapping the crew’s four-game successful streak get considerably higher after the bye week.
On paper.
However soccer video games aren’t gained on paper. Simply ask the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons, who got here into Week 10 with a 6-3 file earlier than being upset by the beforehand 2-7 Saints in New Orleans, 20-17.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
The very best groups don’t all the time win on Sundays – or Mondays or Thursdays – within the NFL. However the 4-6 Bucs will possible be regarded as the higher crew and will favored in all however one sport following the bye week. The 6-3 Chargers will nearly assuredly be the favourite to beat the Bucs at house in Los Angeles in Week 15, however that’s the one crew with a successful file that Tampa Bay will face.
On paper, the Bucs ought to have a determined benefit over most of their opponents, statistically talking. Tampa Bay is going through a whole lot of woeful offenses down the stretch, which ought to assist contemplating how unhealthy the protection has performed this yr. And the Bucs offense will probably be going up towards loads of horrible defenses so there needs to be alternatives for Liam Coen’s aspect of the ball to place up loads of factors.
Right here’s the place the Bucs presently stand by way of league rankings proper now.
Bucs: Whole offense – Eighth (361.5 avg.) / Scoring offense – Fifth (27.9 avg.)Bucs: Whole protection – thirty first (389.3 avg.) / Scoring protection – twenty eighth (26.6 avg.)
Tampa Bay could be very lopsided proper now with the offense the clear energy of the crew – even with out star receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin – whereas the protection is actually the weak spot.
Now let’s take a statistical take a look at the defenses that Coen and the Bucs offense will face over the remaining seven video games.
Week 12 Giants: Whole protection – seventeenth (331.3 avg.) / Scoring protection – fifteenth (22.2 avg.)Week 13 Panthers: Whole protection – thirtieth (386.9 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirty second (31 avg.)Week 14 Raiders: Whole protection – fifteenth (325 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirtieth (27.9 avg.)Week 15 Chargers: Whole protection – Sixth (302.1 avg.) / Scoring protection – First (13.1 avg.)Week 16 Cowboys: Whole protection – twenty sixth (362.9 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirty first (28.8 avg.)Week 17 Panthers: Whole protection – thirtieth (386.9 avg.) / Scoring protection – thirty second (31 avg.)Week 18 Saints: Whole protection – twenty eighth (385.6 avg.) / Scoring protection – twenty fourth (24.6 avg.)
5 of the final seven video games of the 2024 season characteristic defenses which can be within the backside third of the league, together with the worst three scoring defenses in Las Vegas (thirtieth), Dallas (thirty first) and Carolina (thirty second) twice. This appears to bode fairly nicely for Baker Mayfield and Co.
And the excellent news for Todd Bowles’ aspect of the ball is that the Bucs face a number of the worst offenses within the league down the stretch.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: USA At this time
Week 12 Giants: Whole offense – 23th (309.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – thirty second (15.6 avg.)Week 13 Panthers: Whole offense – twenty eighth (280.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty eighth (16.7 avg.)Week 14 Raiders: Whole offense – twenty ninth (280.2 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty fifth (18.7 avg.)Week 15 Chargers: Whole offense – twenty second (314.3 avg.) / Scoring offense – nineteenth (20.7 avg.)Week 16 Cowboys: Whole offense – twenty first (315 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty third (19.7 avg.)Week 17 Panthers: Whole offense – twenty eighth (280.7 avg.) / Scoring offense – twenty eighth (16.7 avg.)Week 18 Saints: Whole offense – sixteenth (334.8 avg.) / Scoring offense – sixteenth (22.7 avg.)
5 of the remaining video games characteristic offenses which can be within the backside third in factors scored this season. Tampa Bay’s end-of-season schedule units up properly for Coen’s offense to place up factors and for Bowles’ protection to get nicely towards some much less formidable offenses.
The Bucs don’t have any enterprise ending any worse than 6-1 with a attainable forgivable loss to the Chargers in Los Angeles. Now it’s as much as Bowles and Co. to not blow Tampa Bay’s probabilities at one other late-season playoff push by dropping to a crew they don’t have any enterprise dropping to.
FAB 3. Todd Bowles’ Curious Determination To Give His Group The Week Off
After Sunday’s 23-20 loss to the 49ers, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles determined to provide his gamers additional time to relaxation and get well and get away from soccer. That transfer appears fairly curious coming off a four-game dropping streak wherein his protection has given up a mean of 31.3 factors per sport.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
NFL guidelines state that groups should give the gamers 4 consecutive days off throughout the bye week. That sometimes means Thursday by means of Sunday. Some groups reward gamers with an additional day without work in the event that they win heading into the bye week.
With a lot to repair on protection heading into a significant seven-game stretch wherein the Bucs in all probability need to win six of them to place themselves for the playoffs, it’s form of loopy that Bowles determined to provide his gamers Wednesday off – approaching the heels of Tuesday, which is the gamers’ day without work.
Under no circumstances am I advocating that Bowles ought to’ve had the Bucs conduct a full apply throughout the bye week. That might be silly given how banged up the crew is.
However a full day’s value of classroom work watching movie collectively, or at the very least a walk-through to tighten up protection and forestall a number of the miscommunication points which have plagued the protection would appear to be a great use of time. And that would’ve been completed whereas giving the gamers’ our bodies an opportunity to relaxation.
The Bucs are having a bonus walk-through apply on Monday earlier than the gamers’ day without work on Tuesday, however that’s coming off 5 straight days off. That walk-through apply might’ve occurred on Wednesday after which the Bucs might’ve watched movie collectively on Monday and had a classroom assembly day. Coming off a four-game dropping streak, I might assume the Bucs might use as a lot apply time as attainable.
For a crew that’s three video games behind division-leading Atlanta and two video games under .500, I don’t assume giving additional days off is essentially sensible or warranted. An all-hands-on-deck sense of urgency appeared extra applicable given the problems on Bowles’ aspect of the ball.
FAB 4. Bucs Have Been On The Shedding Finish Of Too Many One-Rating Video games
It’s regular for many NFL video games to come back all the way down to the ultimate drive. That’s been the case in 5 of the Bucs’ 10 video games this yr. But Tampa Bay is 1-4 in one-score video games this season.
The crew’s lone one-score win was in Week 2 at Detroit, 20-16. Since then, the Bucs have misplaced twice to Atlanta – 36-30 in extra time and 31-26 – along with a 30-24 loss at Kansas Metropolis in extra time and final week’s 23-20 loss at house to San Francisco. Shut video games like these sometimes come all the way down to teaching choices and clutch execution.
Todd Bowles’ protection has been on the sector surrendering the game-winning rating in three of the crew’s defeats, whereas Liam Coen’s offense couldn’t rating a go-ahead landing towards Atlanta at house within the 31-26 loss in Week 8.
One poster on a Bucs Reddit web page got here up with an attention-grabbing graphic. Flipping the outcomes in every of the one-score video games would produce a 7-3 file for Tampa Bay as a substitute of the crew’s 4-6 file.
That’s a three-win swing. And it underscores the significance of higher end-of-game clock administration, play calls and execution in crunch time.
FAB 5. Bucs Ought to Emphasize Finish-Of-Recreation Conditions – For An Whole Follow
I heard one thing this previous week that I want I might quote or discover a clip on. Apparently former Bucs and Patriots quarterback Tom Brady instructed a narrative about New England getting ready for Peyton Manning and the high-powered Colts offense years in the past and the way former New England head coach Invoice Belichick had the protection do nothing however crimson zone work in apply that week.
Bucs CB Josh Hayes and 49ers WR Deebo Samuel – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
He knew the Patriots protection would have a tough time slowing down Manning and the Colts offense from racking up the yards between the 20s. Belichick instructed his protection that they needed to make a stand within the crimson zone as a way to beat the Colts. That meant not permitting touchdowns and forcing Manning and Indianapolis to need to accept subject targets.
I apologize that I can’t recall which season Brady was referring to, however apparently it labored. The Patriots performed nice crimson zone protection and beat the Colts that week due to it.
With the Bucs fighting a 1-4 mark in end-of-game conditions, maybe Todd Bowles ought to do this unconventional technique for at the very least a apply. Merely do an hour-and-a-half of nothing however end-of-game conditions. All the apply simulating completely different two-minute conditions on offense and protection.
Doing so would create a larger sense of urgency for the Bucs in consequence and doubtless get the gamers’ consideration that dropping video games on the finish has price Tampa Bay an opportunity at having a successful file. Emphasizing end-of-game conditions would possibly assist an offense that couldn’t shut out a win at Atlanta, rating a come-from-behind landing versus the Falcons in Tampa Bay and rating a landing fairly than a subject objective on the finish towards San Francisco.
And for Bowles’ protection, which has been on the sector giving up the ultimate rating in extra time losses at Atlanta and at Kansas Metropolis and on the sector for the game-winning kick final Sunday, it actually would assist, too. However sadly I sense that Bowles is an excessive amount of of a traditionalist to attempt one thing as radical as this method.
