Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucs recreation with six quick-hitting matters. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponent, what is going to result in a Tampa Bay victory or loss and a few key matchups to observe every week.
The Bucs improved to 7-6 on the season and retook the lead within the NFC South from the Falcons, who misplaced their fourth straight recreation and slumped to 6-7. Up subsequent for Tampa Bay are a pair of highway video games at Los Angeles and Dallas earlier than two dwelling video games in opposition to Carolina and New Orleans to finish the season. The 8-5 Chargers are the one workforce with a successful file that the Bucs will face down the stretch.
What’s At Stake For The Bucs
Bucs HC Todd Bowles and DB Tykee Smith – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay is surging after its bye week, successful three straight video games and is accountable for its future. Ought to the Bucs win out, they’ll declare a fourth straight NFC South title and the automated dwelling playoff recreation that comes with it. Tampa Bay has benefited from a a lot simpler schedule following the bye, and Los Angeles is the one remaining workforce with a successful file and thus presents probably the most formidable problem.
The Bucs have been reeling from accidents all season and have been dealt an enormous blow final Sunday with star security Antoine Winfield Jr. struggling a knee damage that can sideline him for a number of video games. Todd Bowles’ secondary was already lacking beginning robust security Jordan Whitehead, who’s on injured reserve with a pectoral pressure he suffered in New York, and his substitute Mike Edwards, who pulled a hamstring in Carolina. Tampa Bay is working out of our bodies on the security place, and can also be skinny at linebacker with starter Okay.J. Britt (foot) and reserve J.J. Russell (hamstring) lacking final week’s recreation.
Whereas the Bucs protection has carried out higher for the reason that bye, permitting a mean of simply 14.3 factors recreation, Liam Coen’s offense continues to be carrying the workforce. Tampa Bay is averaging 27.9 factors per recreation, which ranks fifth within the NFL. And the offense has relied on a dominant efficiency by the O-line this yr and the league’s eighth-ranked speeding assault, which averages 138.8 yards per recreation. The Chargers have one of many stingiest defenses within the league, as L.A. is first in scoring protection, permitting simply 15.9 factors per recreation.
What’s At Stake For The Chargers
Chargers QB Justin Herbert Picture by: USA In the present day
After a 7-3 begin, the Chargers have misplaced two of their final three video games, however these defeats got here by the hands of a few AFC powerhouses within the Ravens and the Chiefs. Los Angeles’ lone win over the past three video games got here at Atlanta, the place the Chargers protection picked off Kirk Cousins 4 occasions. Now at 8-5, Los Angeles must safe just a few extra wins to clinch a Wild Card playoff spot within the AFC. After getting swept by Kansas Metropolis, the Chargers have already conceded the AFC West division title to the Chiefs.
L.A. is led by its protection below new head coach Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers have the top-ranked scoring protection and rank eleventh in complete protection (323.7 yards allowed per recreation), eighth in passing protection (206.1 yards allowed per recreation), and are tied for 14th in speeding protection (117.6 yards allowed per recreation). Harbaugh’s recreation plan is to run the ball on offense, move the ball conservatively and play nice protection. Thus far it’s labored as Los Angeles is in prime place to make the playoffs in Harbaugh’s first yr again within the NFL.
Whereas quarterback Justin Herbert is having an excellent yr with 14 landing passes and only one interception, he did undergo a leg and ankle damage within the 19-17 loss to Kansas Metropolis final Sunday. Whereas he’s anticipated to play, he’ll be with out main rusher J.Okay. Dobbins, who’s on injured reserve, and might be with out main receiver, rookie Ladd McConkey, who’s coping with shoulder and knee accidents. Operating again Gus Edwards and Quentin Johnston will probably be counted on to select up the slack and assist Herbert decide up yards and put factors on the scoreboard.
The Bucs Win If…
Bucs NCB Tykee Smith – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay wants to attain touchdowns and never area objectives in Los Angles to get the win. The Bucs are averaging 27.9 factors per recreation this yr, and have averaged precisely 28 factors over the past three wins. The consistency of Liam Coen’s offense lighting up the scoreboard is one thing to behold. If Baker Mayfield and Co. can proceed at that tempo, it could be troublesome for the Chargers to catch up. Los Angeles doesn’t have an explosive, high-powered offense, so getting an early lead might go a protracted solution to successful the workforce’s fourth straight recreation.
Baker Mayfield has thrown 4 interceptions within the final two video games after not throwing a decide for 3 straight video games previous to that. He’ll have to do a a lot better job of defending the soccer on the highway in opposition to an opportunistic Chargers protection that has recorded 39 sacks and 13 interceptions this season. Establishing a gentle floor assault ought to take a number of the stress off Mayfield.
Defensively, the Bucs lastly recorded an interception final week with rookie nickelback Tykee Smith doing the honors in his return to motion after lacking three video games with a knee damage. That snapped a six-game streak with no decide. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has solely been picked off as soon as and has gone 11 straight video games with out throwing an interception. If the Bucs can win the turnover battle and drive Herbert right into a mistake or two, they may come away with a West Coast victory on Sunday.
The Chargers Win If…
Falcons QB Kirk Cousins – Picture by: USA In the present day
As beforehand talked about, Los Angeles has the NFL’s top-ranked scoring protection, surrendering slightly below 16 factors per recreation. Tampa Bay has solely been held below 20 factors in a single recreation this yr, which was in a 26-7 loss to Denver again in Week 3. So one thing has to present. If the Chargers protection can apply stress on quarterback Baker Mayfield and drive him into some errors, that can go a good distance in retaining the Bucs off the scoreboard.
Los Angeles has solely allowed two groups to attain greater than 20 factors this yr – permitting 27 to Cincinnati in a 34-27 win and 30 to Baltimore in a 30-23 defeat. And that’s essential as a result of the Chargers offense isn’t terribly dynamic to start with. Think about main rusher J.Okay. Dobbins being on injured reserve and rookie large receiver Ladd McConkey questionable to play with shoulder and knee accidents, and factors might be at a premium for L.A. The Chargers should hope for a low-scoring, defensive slugfest to face the perfect probability of successful.
The Chargers have a determined edge on particular groups, they usually have a very good punter in JK Scott, who averages 46.9 yards with a 42.1-yard web. He’s nailed 25 punts contained in the 20 with simply three touchbacks. Area aim kicker Cameron Dicker is as dependable as they arrive with simply two misses this yr and a 93.3% area aim proportion and an 88.5% proportion on further factors. Return specialist Derius Davis might go off in opposition to Tampa Bay, as he’s averaged 29.5 yards on kick returns and 13.6 yards on punt returns. The Bucs’ protection models have been first rate, however not nice this yr.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense
Bucs OTs Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke vs. Chargers OLBs Tuli Tuipuluto and Khalil Mack
Chargers OLB Khalil Mack – Picture by: USA In the present day
The Chargers have a potent pair of move rushers in future Corridor of Famer Khalil Mack and former second-round decide Tuli Tuipuluto. These two have mixed for 12.5 sacks, led by Tuipuluto’s 7.5 QB captures. Even at age 33 Mack continues to be a formidable move rusher and is the highest-graded defender on the Chargers protection, in response to Professional Soccer Focus. Mack has a 91.7 PFF grade and leads Los Angeles with 39 pressures. Tuipuluto is second on the workforce with 32 QB pressures this yr and is coming into his personal as a move rusher. Enjoying reverse Mack definitely helps.
Final week, Baker Mayfield was sacked 4 occasions, however a few these sacks have been on him for holding on to the ball too lengthy. Mayfield didn’t really feel snug within the pocket from the second quarter on, and that led to a pair of interceptions and a fumble, which got here on a sack surrendered by working again Sean Tucker. Bucs offensive tackles Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke may have their arms full on Sunday from each Mack and Tuipuluto.
Wirfs has but to give up a sack this yr in 12 video games, in response to Professional Soccer Focus, and Goedeke has solely allowed one in 9 video games. The 2 have solely allowed a mixed 20 pressures with Wirfs surrendering 9 and Goedeke credited with 11. As if Mack and Tuipuluto weren’t sufficient to cope with, the Chargers even have large depth at exterior linebacker with Bud Dupree and Joey Bosa, who has battled hip and again accidents this yr. Dupree has 5 sacks and Bosa has gotten to the QB 4 occasions in 2024.
Bucs’ Key Matchup On Protection
Bucs CBs Jamel Dean and Zyon McCollum vs. Chargers WR Quentin Johnston
Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R
Johnston hasn’t lived as much as his first-round draft billing from a yr in the past and turn into a dominant WR1 in Los Angeles but. After catching 38 passes for 431 yards and two touchdowns in an up-and-down rookie yr, Johnston is on his solution to eclipsing these numbers in 2024 with 29 catches for 414 yards with 4 video games left within the common season. The place Johnston has shined is scoring touchdowns with a personal-best and team-high seven TDs this yr.
The shortage of growth from Johnston final yr led to the Chargers drafting Ladd McConkey close to the highest of the second spherical. The rookie from Georgia has been Justin Herbert’s favourite goal this season and leads L.A. with 58 catches for 815 yards and 4 touchdowns. McConkey missed the Chiefs recreation final week resulting from damage and is questionable of this week’s recreation in opposition to the Bucs. So search for Johnston to presumably be the principle receiving risk once more in Week 15. He’s coming off one in all his finest video games of the yr in a 19-17 loss to Kansas Metropolis the place he caught 5 passes for 48 yards and a landing.
Johnston performs totally on the left facet of the formation and can sq. off in opposition to cornerback Jamel Dean fairly a bit on Sunday. At 6-foot-1, 205 kilos, Dean has sufficient measurement to match up with the 6-foot-3, 215-pound receiver. However Johnston may even see a while on the best facet going up in opposition to left cornerback Zyon McCollum, who has struggled with bodily receivers, corresponding to San Francisco’s Jauan Jennings, who had over 100 yards in a 23-20 win at Tampa Bay again in Week 10.
