Final offseason, the Diamondbacks have been looking for a marquee starter to pair with Zac Gallen atop their rotation. The market was skinny on the high – Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani have been most likely by no means obtainable to them, so their greatest choices have been Sonny Grey, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shota Imanaga, and Jordan Montgomery. They signed two of these guys, and neither delivered the rotation-stabilizing efficiency they’d anticipated. However as an alternative of waving their palms within the air and raving on the injustice of variance, the Diamondbacks obtained proper again on the horse:
BREAKING: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. choose out after 2 years
— Jon Heyman (@jonheyman.bsky.social) 2024-12-28T06:32:12.313Z
Corbin Burnes was the most effective free agent pitcher obtainable. In every of the final 5 seasons, he’s been one of many high pitchers within the sport, racking up a 2.88 ERA, 3.01 FIP, and 816 innings pitched. He’s second in WAR (21.7) over that time-frame, second in RA9-WAR (23.2), second in strikeouts (946), and third in innings pitched. In different phrases, he’s been a capital-A Ace, a set-it-and-forget-it selection on the high of the beginning rotation. He’ll obtain $35 million a yr for six seasons, with an opt-out after the second yr of the deal, which additionally features a $10 million signing bonus.
With Gallen additionally on their dance card, the Diamondbacks have among the best one-two mixtures within the majors. That doesn’t even embrace Merrill Kelly, a borderline All-Star when wholesome, or Brandon Pfaadt, who seemed like he was lastly breaking out earlier than a tough ultimate two months of the season. Add in Montgomery and Rodriguez, and Arizona goes six deep with believable playoff starters. That’s the way you injury-proof a rotation – sheer depth.
I’m curious to see how Burnes’ profession arc will play out. He burst onto the scene in 2020 with a reworked fastball and wipeout slider that powered him to gaudy strikeout totals. He’s continued to transform that slicing fastball seemingly yearly, altering its form and utilizing it to rack up weak contact as an alternative of to arrange strikeouts. That nasty slider that served him so nicely is now a backup plan; fairly, he leans on a giant, two-plane curveball that he’ll throw in any rely to any hitter.
The results of this reinvention? Burnes has remodeled right into a command-and-grounders pitcher as an alternative of a short-stint strikeout artist. His 2021 Cy Younger marketing campaign lined solely 167 innings; he missed a couple of turns that yr due to sickness, but in addition hardly ever labored late into the sport. He’s eclipsed 190 innings in each season since then, whereas hanging out fewer batters annually.
It’s truthful to say that Burnes is not the electrical man he was in 2021. It’s additionally truthful to say that he’s extremely efficient in his present kind. He’s averaged roughly 4.0 WAR and a 3.00 ERA over roughly 200 innings in every of the final three years. Possibly that’s not the manufacturing of a top-five starter general, however he’s nonetheless clearly among the best pitchers in baseball. He turned 30 in October and doesn’t have an enormous damage historical past or debilitating innings load. It’s cheap to anticipate Burnes to hold on in an identical kind for the foreseeable future.
In fact, that’s only one means issues can go. Pitchers with declining strikeout charges generally flip into pumpkins. That’s why Burnes obtained Stephen Strasburg cash as an alternative of a Gerrit Cole deal. If he retains up his current kind for the following half-decade, he’ll be a significant discount for the Diamondbacks, although the opt-out limits simply how nice it may be from the group’s aspect. I’d fairly have Burnes on this contract than Snell or Max Fried on those they signed, although all three contracts are fairly related general. ZiPS thinks all three offers have been overpays relative to mannequin worth; it might give Burnes six years and $182 million for the next projection:
ZiPS Projection – Corbin Burnes
Yr
W
L
ERA
FIP
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2025
14
7
2.97
3.29
30
30
181.7
151
60
16
51
179
139
4.2
2026
13
7
3.09
3.38
29
29
172.0
148
59
16
48
165
134
3.8
2027
12
6
3.18
3.47
27
27
164.0
144
58
15
46
153
130
3.5
2028
11
7
3.30
3.60
26
26
152.7
139
56
15
43
138
126
3.1
2029
11
6
3.41
3.75
24
24
147.7
139
56
15
42
129
121
2.8
2030
9
7
3.62
3.95
22
22
131.7
129
53
15
39
111
114
2.2
I might write for hours about Burnes. I’ve, the truth is, on various events. However probably the most notable a part of this deal to me is that Arizona is the one handing out the cash. The Diamondbacks made the World Sequence in 2023 with a $124 million payroll. They pushed that quantity up final yr chasing a repeat efficiency, after which missed the playoffs by a single sport. However as an alternative of standing pat or retreating, they’re pushing the funds up once more and including to the group.
That’s a smart move given the best way the group is constructed. The rotation is nice proper now, however Gallen and Kelly are free brokers after this yr. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Eugenio Suárez will most likely by no means be higher than they’re proper now. Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno are able to contribute to a championship group. That is the Diamondbacks’ window, and so they’re appearing like they understand it.
Does it matter that they’re taking part in in the identical division because the world-conquering Dodgers? I imply, I’m positive they aren’t thrilled about that, however it’s merely a reality of life at this level. The NL West is a troublesome division, and that isn’t going to alter any time quickly. So as an alternative of pouting and punting, the Diamondbacks are doing no matter they’ll to maintain tempo with Los Angeles. Good for them!
To be clear, the Dodgers are nonetheless very a lot the favorites within the division. Nevertheless, the Diamondbacks are actually squarely the second-best membership within the NL West, and that’s a wonderful place to be, as a result of lately they don’t have to win the division. Heck, they don’t even must be the most effective of the non-division winners, as a result of three Wild Card groups make the playoffs. Their younger core is robust sufficient to make a push now, and that requires outdoors additions. Arizona additionally understands that this window gained’t final perpetually, and Burnes’ opt-outs provides to the group’s urgency to strike whereas the iron is sizzling. Certain, if Burnes pitches nicely, the Diamondbacks might lose him in a couple of years. However that’s OK — the following two seasons have been at all times going to be their most vital ones. If the opt-outs have been essential to get the deal achieved, then so be it.
Even higher, the Diamondbacks improved their roster in a means that’s each useful in the course of the common season — Burnes pitches a number of innings — and scary in a brief playoff collection. They now have Burnes, Gallen, and Kelly to anchor their postseason rotation, and if Montgomery returns to his 2023 kind or Pfaadt takes one other step ahead, certainly one of them might leap Kelly on the depth chart and provides Arizona an excellent higher trio. Both means, the Diamondbacks are positioned to carry out nicely in a best-of-three Wild Card collection, which might be the place they’ll find yourself in the event that they make the playoffs, contemplating, nicely, the Dodgers.
The hits simply preserve coming. The Giants have been reportedly in on Burnes too, and so they’re each a divisional foe and a competitor for a Wild Card berth. They’ve loads of cash to spend and severe pitching wants, however now there isn’t anybody they’ll flip to for the same affect on their rotation. Jack Flaherty? Nick Pivetta? Burnes was the one marquee identify left, so the Diamondbacks managed the uncommon double of enhancing their roster whereas additionally meaningfully limiting their competitors’s choices with a single signing.
Possibly it seems like I’m too optimistic about this deal. There are, the truth is, loads of methods it may possibly go flawed. Pitching contracts are at all times dangerous, as a result of pitching is dangerous. Elbows are finicky physique elements, shoulders aren’t a lot better, and generally a mile an hour of velocity is the distinction between dominating and getting shelled.
However even taking all of those under consideration, might you discover a higher, extra dependable pitcher than Burnes? He’s constant, and he delivers quantity. He doesn’t do it with any pitches that make you marvel how his ligaments stay hooked up, and he’s younger sufficient that even when he have been to overlook a season with damage, he might nonetheless come again robust. Certain, I’d fairly have Tarik Skubal or George Kirby going ahead, however these guys weren’t obtainable. Burnes was, and he’s not a lot worse than them.
No free agent deal is ideal. There are at all times dangers that include spending a lot cash on a single participant. It’s pricey, however it’s additionally vital. So in case you’re going to play the free agent market, do it like Arizona simply did. Signal an elite participant at his peak at exactly the second when your group wants an elite participant at his peak. If you happen to can, signal him to a deal that would preserve him round for years to come back, however greater than something, be sure you have him whereas your aggressive window is open — when your group is about as much as benefit from his contributions. Fairly merely, this is likely one of the most closely fits of group and participant to date this winter.
