Super Bowl 2025: Chiefs-Eagles picks, key stats, predictions

Tremendous Bowl LIX kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, with the Philadelphia Eagles going through the two-time reigning champion Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. This can be a rematch of Tremendous Bowl LVII, after the 2022 season, during which the Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35.

Kansas Metropolis is trying to make historical past by turning into the primary NFL staff to win three straight Tremendous Bowls. The final time the Eagles received the Tremendous Bowl was after the 2017 season in Tremendous Bowl LII. The Chiefs entered the playoffs because the AFC’s No. 1 seed, whereas the Eagles have been the NFC’s No. 2 seed.

Now we have you lined with all the things you’ll want to know for Chiefs-Eagles, together with staff previews, field rating predictions, a breakdown of Tremendous Bowl MVP candidates and recreation picks. We additionally present recommendation from our sports activities betting specialists and in-depth statistics from ESPN Analysis. We take a look at the 2 quarterbacks, coaches, officiating, positional benefits and X components. And scroll all the best way down to take a look at our preview of Kendrick Lamar’s halftime present.

Let’s dive into this one-stop store cheat sheet, beginning with a preview of the matchup.

Previewing Chiefs vs. Eagles

When: Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ETWhere: Caesars Superdome, New OrleansTelevision: FoxDepth charts: Chiefs | Eagles

If the Chiefs need their three-peat, they are going to should beat the perfect staff they’ve performed in a Tremendous Bowl within the Patrick Mahomes period. The Eagles have misplaced three video games all season, two of them after their receivers dropped passes that might have clinched victories. Since their Week 5 bye, they’ve gone 15-1, posted a plus-27 turnover margin and received their video games by a median of 13.8 factors.

This Eagles staff is healthier than the one the Chiefs beat two years in the past in Tremendous Bowl LVII and higher than both of the 49ers groups Kansas Metropolis topped in Tremendous Bowls LIV and LVIII. Philadelphia is even scarier than the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers, who managed to offer Mahomes his solely championship recreation defeat in Tremendous Bowl LV.

Tremendous Bowl LIX: Chiefs-Eagles

• All the pieces to know for the Tremendous Bowl• Barnwell’s final preview (ESPN+)• Solak predicts the field rating (ESPN+)• Chiefs constructed to final | Inside Hurts’ legacy• Professional picks | Betting information (ESPN+)Schedule | Bracket | Key stats | Extra

I would not say that is the perfect Chiefs staff we have seen, however it could be the wiliest. Hardly ever dominant however by no means out of it, the Chiefs put collectively a sequence of spectacularly shut victories in 2024. Holding on to a victory in opposition to the Ravens in Week 1 by the size of Isaiah Possible’s toenail portended what was to come back all season. The Chiefs received video games with fourth-down stops, area objectives bouncing off uprights, kicks getting blocked and snaps being dropped. They discovered a option to sprinkle simply sufficient magic mud into every victory. Their win over the Payments within the AFC Championship Sport, a measure of revenge for Buffalo costing the Chiefs an opportunity at an undefeated common season in November, was their fifteenth consecutive victory in video games determined by seven factors or fewer.

Can the Eagles deny the Chiefs from making historical past? A 2024 offseason for the ages has replenished Philadelphia’s roster, and it’s the higher staff — on paper. That begins with the participant who could be the story of the season, a operating again Kansas Metropolis has to cease if it has any hope of profitable one other title: Saquon Barkley — Invoice Barnwell, senior NFL author

Learn extra: Barnwell previews the Tremendous Bowl (ESPN+)

Meet the groups

Coach: Andy Reid

Reid brings a great deal of playoff and Tremendous Bowl expertise. In 26 seasons — 12 with the Chiefs — Reid is 28-16 within the postseason and 3-2 within the Tremendous Bowl. He was a finalist for the 2024 AP Coach of the Yr award, an honor not often given to the chief of a two-time defending Tremendous Bowl championship staff. The 2024 Chiefs have been hit exhausting by accidents, had bother at occasions defending Mahomes and have been inconsistent for a lot of the season on protection. However thanks partially to Reid, they’re nonetheless one win away from profitable a 3rd consecutive championship.

How did they get right here?

Attending to 17-2 (together with two playoff victories) took loads of work. Kansas Metropolis received 11 regular-season video games plus the AFC Championship Sport in opposition to the Payments by one rating and at occasions was aided by a component of luck. However the Chiefs additionally confirmed a knack for making the fitting play on the proper time. A blocked area purpose on the ultimate play to protect a two-point win in opposition to the Broncos in Week 10 was something however luck. — Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter

Coach: Nick Sirianni

Sirianni is the primary coach within the Tremendous Bowl period to make the playoffs in every of his first 4 seasons whereas reaching the Tremendous Bowl a number of occasions. He guided the Eagles to the title recreation in opposition to the Chiefs within the 2023 season, a 38-35 Eagles loss. With a regular-season file of 48-20, Sirianni has the third-highest profitable proportion (.706) by a head coach within the fashionable period (minimal 50 video games), trailing solely John Madden and George Allen.

How did they get right here?

The Eagles acquired off to a shaky 2-2 begin, testing the nerves of the fan base following a 1-6 collapse down the stretch final season. They turned extra of a Saquon Barkley-focused offense through the Week 5 bye, and that propelled them to a 10-game profitable streak and a 14-3 regular-season file. Led by the NFL’s prime speeding recreation and protection, Philadelphia earned the No. 2 seed within the NFC and received three straight postseason dwelling video games to punch its ticket to the Tremendous Bowl, together with a 55-23 thumping of the Commanders within the NFC title recreation. — Tim McManus, Eagles reporter

Learn extra: Reid says he’ll return as Chiefs coach in 2025 … Sirianni is a gamers’ coach, it doesn’t matter what you consider him

QB breakdown

Mahomes is coming off a down yr — for him — as he ranked eighth with a 68 QBR within the common season. It wasn’t all on him, although, because the Chiefs struggled to settle their deal with scenario and his playmakers have been missing, particularly early within the season. However you’d nonetheless anticipate extra from the perfect quarterback on the planet taking part in for coach Reid (and with an elite inside offensive line). After all, postseason Mahomes is just totally different. His 79 QBR ranks third within the playoffs, and his profession postseason QBR is roughly 10 factors larger than within the common season.

Energy: Resolution-making. Regardless of Mahomes rating fifth with a 69 QBR this season (postseason included), he ranks first on third down (90). Regardless of throwing to the sticks solely 28% of the time on early downs (second lowest), his quantity jumps to 60% (eleventh most) on third down, demonstrating how Mahomes modifications his danger profile when the scenario warrants it. And when Mahomes decides to scramble, he’s hyperefficient, averaging 0.79 EPA per play, third highest and highest amongst any quarterback with at the very least a 2% scramble charge.

Lastly, the Chiefs ranked second in common separation on the time of ball arrival (3.9), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. Which may sound like a large receiver statistic, however it might need extra to do with the scheme and quarterback; separation on this context is just measured on targets, and that is partially a mirrored image of Mahomes’ potential to search out and throw to an open participant.

Editor’s Picks

2 Associated

Weak point: Accuracy. It is humorous that the consensus finest quarterback of this era is mediocre relating to accuracy, however it has been true for years. Mahomes recorded a minus-2 completion proportion over expectation this season, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. His 14% off-target charge was twelfth finest, however that got here whereas averaging simply 6.2 air yards per goal (third lowest) — shorter passes are a lot much less prone to be off-target. Mahomes has had a unfavourable completion proportion over expectation in each season since 2019. — Seth Walder, analytics author

Philadelphia has some of the run-heavy offenses within the league, with a minus-11% move charge over expectation (fourth lowest), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. That’s, to some extent, a mirrored image and knock in opposition to Hurts, who has additionally had the good thing about taking part in in very pleasant circumstances. He performs behind a superb offensive line and with distinctive ability gamers (although the specter of his legs helps, too). Hurts’ 65 QBR ranks tenth — scrambles and designed runs are probably the most environment friendly components of his recreation. However on non-scramble dropbacks, Hurts nonetheless ranked eleventh in QBR (61), and he additionally led the league in completion proportion over expectation (plus-7, by way of Subsequent Gen Stats).

Energy: Runs — each designed (together with the tush push) and scrambles. The Eagles operating the tush push with such success is a credit score to Hurts and the offensive line, and its impact should not be minimized. Hurts ranks second amongst all quarterbacks in whole EPA (58) generated on runs and scrambles — one thing that was true even earlier than the postseason. And it is not all fourth-and-1 conversions. performs with 2 yards or extra to go, the Eagles’ EPA on Hurts’ runs (37) ranks third finest behind the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels and the Payments’ Josh Allen.

Hurts can also be simpler on runs up the center than going east and west; he averaged 0.29 EPA per play on runs and scrambles with at the very least 2 yards to go outdoors the tackles, however 0.42 EPA per play inside.

Weak point: Sack avoidance. The Eagles’ offensive line deservedly receives loads of reward. It ranked sixth in move block win charge (67.4%) and has arguably the NFL’s finest deal with in Lane Johnson. And but, Hurts has taken sacks on 9.4% of his dropbacks, which is forward of solely the Titans’ Will Levis and the Bears’ Caleb Williams amongst QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. The results of that difficulty have been profound; the Eagles’ offense has recorded 1.1 anticipated factors added per drive that doesn’t embody a sack, however that quantity drops to minus-1.0 when there’s at the very least one sack. — Walder

Learn extra: Can Hurts present a Tremendous Bowl win to quiet the doubters? … Each option to guess Mahomes … Each option to guess on Hurts

Projecting the passing field rating

In preparation for the Tremendous Bowl, I got here up with predicted stat strains for each participant concerned, together with passing projections for the 2 QBs. When Mahomes is aware of what he is getting on any given play, he not often misses the inform or the throw. On fast throws this season, Mahomes had successful charge of 60.9%. However in opposition to fast throws, the Eagles allowed solely 5.5 yards per try — finest within the NFL. One thing has acquired to offer. Issues would possibly get tough within the pink zone, the place unexpectedly there isn’t any beneath house. However bear in mind, Reid cooked the Eagles within the pink zone two Tremendous Bowls in the past with back-and-forth motions.

Hurts, in the meantime, has been higher in opposition to the blitz, his largest criticism exiting 2023, and has typically change into extra correct as a thrower. However the greatest enchancment he made this season was not turning the ball over. He would possibly really should throw the Eagles again into this recreation, although. I anticipate Chiefs D-coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to current a ton of untamed appears to be like to remove quick-game choices and encourage Hurts, one of many league leaders in time to throw (3.13 seconds), to carry onto the soccer. The longer the down, the extra doubtless it’s Hurts takes a nasty sack. — Ben Solak, NFL analyst

Ben Solak’s QB projections for Tremendous Bowl LIX

PlayerCMP/ATTYardsTDsINTsSacksPatrick Mahomes, KC22-32210313Jalen Hurts, PHI20-34204104

Learn extra: Solak initiatives the total Tremendous Bowl field rating (ESPN+)

Greatest questions

Can the Chiefs defend the Eagles’ tush push?

Judging solely by how they defended the Payments’ model of the play within the AFC Championship Sport, the Chiefs have purpose to imagine they’ll maintain up properly. Josh Allen and Buffalo tried it six occasions in opposition to Kansas Metropolis however transformed simply twice. One cease got here on fourth down on the Kansas Metropolis 41-yard line within the fourth quarter, when the Chiefs trailed by some extent. They used the favorable area place to attain the go-ahead landing.

“The [defensive] line must be dominant,” defensive deal with Chris Jones mentioned on how the Chiefs defended the play. “Your two [nose guards] and your two ends should be bodily on the within.”

Kansas Metropolis hasn’t fared as properly in defending Hurts on the tush push. He used it to attain two touchdowns in opposition to the Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl LVII. Hurts additionally used it to attain the profitable landing in opposition to Kansas Metropolis within the fourth quarter of a Week 11 regular-season contest in 2023. — Teicher

Learn extra: Chiefs’ greatest matchup questions

What do the Eagles want from receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith to enrich the run recreation?

They will want the type of passing effectivity they acquired within the NFC Championship Sport when Hurts went 20-of-28 for 246 yards, a landing and no interceptions. It marked simply the second time since mid-November that Hurts threw for 200-plus yards.

Questions endured in regards to the aerial assault for a lot of the season. The manufacturing didn’t match the type of expectations that include gamers like Brown, Smith, Hurts and tight finish Dallas Goedert on the offense. However a lot of it was by design, because the teaching workers — armed with a dominant protection and floor recreation — leaned conservative with the move to maintain turnovers at a minimal. That strategy has labored fairly properly: The Eagles have 10 takeaways to zero giveaways within the playoffs.

Hurts quipped after the NFC title recreation that Sirianni “let me out of my straitjacket a bit bit,” permitting him to air it out to Brown and Smith greater than typical. Sirianni ought to go into this matchup assured about Hurts, who had among the best performances of his profession in Tremendous Bowl LVII (374 whole yards, 4 touchdowns). Smith (7 catches, 100 yards) and Brown (6 catches, 96 yards, TD) have been an enormous a part of that. They will doubtless be referred to as on once more on condition that the Chiefs are certain to be targeted on slowing down Barkley. — McManus

Learn extra: Eagles’ greatest matchup questions

Stephen A.: Solely a Tremendous Bowl win will change Jalen Hurts’ narrative

Stephen A. Smith says Jalen Hurts will solely be capable to shake his “recreation supervisor” tag if he wins the Tremendous Bowl.

Keys to a Chiefs win

Positional benefit: Quarterback

Mahomes’ success in important moments of a recreation, plus his potential to create on scrambles, provides the Chiefs a definitive benefit at quarterback. His league-best QBR on third down within the common season (90) jumped to 98 within the playoffs. Mahomes additionally transformed 22 first downs as a runner on scramble makes an attempt within the common season, with 5 extra within the playoffs. Along with his elite instincts to win on cash downs, he can lengthen drives along with his legs. The Eagles’ move rush will definitely warmth up the pocket and power him to maneuver. — Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

Chiefs’ X issue: Jaylen Watson, CB

After taking part in extra of a depth position in 2023, Watson was penciled in as a starter to exchange the departed L’Jarius Sneed in 2024. And for the primary few video games, Watson was implausible. Via Week 7, his protection DVOA of minus-51.5% was fifth within the league amongst beginning cornerbacks. However he fractured an ankle in Week 7 and was misplaced for the common season.

There is not any query the Chiefs’ protection nosedived after Watson acquired damage. In Weeks 1 by 7, the Chiefs ranked second in defensive DVOA. Within the following six weeks, Kansas Metropolis ranked twenty eighth in defensive DVOA. The Chiefs reversed issues within the closing few weeks of the season, with robust defensive performances in Weeks 14 by 17 earlier than they sat starters in Week 18.

Watson has returned to the lineup for the postseason, and he is again to shutting down opposing receivers. Within the first two playoff video games, FTN Information charting listed Watson as the principle defender in protection on 5 passes. The Texans and Payments weren’t throwing at him. The one accomplished passes he allowed have been an 8-yard completion to Texans’ Xavier Hutchinson late within the fourth quarter and a completion for no achieve to Payments’ Ty Johnson in zone protection. Watson is often lined up because the left cornerback, which suggests he’ll be overlaying whoever is the outermost Eagles receiver on the fitting facet. — Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst

Rookie to observe: Xavier Worthy, WR

Worthy has change into a go-to goal for the Chiefs’ offense. The primary-round choose completed the common season with 59 catches for 638 receiving yards and 6 landing receptions. He might be up in opposition to the Eagles’ secondary, among the best within the NFL, so coach Reid and Mahomes should determine the way to get Worthy concerned within the passing recreation. However along with his velocity and dynamic skills, anticipate to see many targets going his manner within the Tremendous Bowl. — Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst

Keys to an Eagles win

Positional benefit: Secondary

Since Week 6, when rookie slot nook Cooper DeJean was inserted into the beginning lineup, the Eagles have allowed a league-low 5.2 yards per try and 171.9 passing yards per recreation. On the perimeter, corners Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay Jr. are sticky in protection, with high-end closing velocity. And safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Reed Blankenship can play top-down on the ball, which is a seamless match for coordinator Vic Fangio’s split-field schemes. This defensive unit has the personnel and the playcaller to create matchup benefits in opposition to the Chiefs’ huge receivers and tight ends. — Bowen

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Eagles’ X issue: Nolan Smith Jr., LB

After a quiet rookie season in 2023 (one sack, 18 tackles and no begins), Smith has been a way more vital a part of the Eagles’ move rush this season. He entered the beginning lineup for good in Week 9 and had 6.5 sacks within the common season. Smith has been on hearth within the playoffs, with 4 sacks whereas taking part in over 80% of the Eagles’ defensive snaps over the previous three video games. His move rush win charge of 16.6% would have ranked seventeenth if he had sufficient snaps to qualify for ESPN’s rankings.

Smith developed a lot this season that he primarily made big-money free agent Bryce Huff disappear. Huff, who signed a three-year, $51.1 million deal within the offseason, misplaced his beginning job to Smith at midseason and has performed solely 13 whole defensive snaps within the playoffs.

Smith has 28 whole move pressures (together with the playoffs), which ranks third on the Eagles behind the better-known Jalen Carter (34) and Josh Sweat (36). Because the left outdoors linebacker, Smith will spend many of the Tremendous Bowl lined up in opposition to proper deal with Jawaan Taylor, who has given up probably the most first pressures on the Chiefs (72, together with the playoffs). — Schatz

Rookie to observe: Quinyon Mitchell, CB

The Eagles’ protection is filled with impression rookies similar to Mitchell, DeJean and Jalyx Hunt, who’ve helped information the staff again to the Tremendous Bowl. However none has been extra vital than Mitchell. The primary-rounder has been superior at cornerback, particularly within the postseason, the place he has two interceptions. Dealing with a Chiefs passing assault that might be searching for methods to get the ball into the fingers of Worthy, Mitchell’s man protection potential and playmaking expertise ought to come up huge for Philadelphia. The Eagles’ defensive position is a matchup benefit, and if they’ll get Mahomes shifting off his spot and making late throws, Mitchell might be in line to learn from it. — Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst

ESPN’s FPI has the Eagles profitable 56.1% of the simulations — and they’re favored to win by a median of two.2 factors.

This matchup is a showdown between two top-10 groups in FPI: the No. 5 Eagles (6.0) and the No. 6 Chiefs (3.9). The Eagles are fifth on offense and the Chiefs rank seventh. On protection, Philadelphia ranks first and Kansas Metropolis is thirteenth. The Chiefs have been No. 2 in FPI within the preseason, whereas the Eagles have been No. 5.

Within the preseason, the Chiefs had the second-best likelihood to make the Tremendous Bowl (18.9%) and the Eagles had the third-best odds (16.4%). Kansas Metropolis was given a 9.4% likelihood to win it, whereas Philadelphia was at 9.6%.

Who wins the sport?

We requested 67 specialists to weigh in on who will win. The Chiefs have been picked by 41 of them (61.2%), whereas the Eagles claimed 26 votes (38.8%). The most typical rating predictions have been 27-24 (picked by 10 of our specialists), 27-23 (5) and 31-28 (5).

Learn extra: ESPN workers predictions

Of the 67 specialists who weighed in, 37 (55.2%) picked Mahomes to win Tremendous Bowl MVP. Mahomes (+105), Barkley (+275) and Hurts (+360) are the ESPN BET betting favorites. We requested a number of specialists to elucidate their MVP prediction.

Elizabeth Merrill, senior author: Barkley. On Sunday, he turns 28, the yr NFL operating backs usually start their declines, however Barkley has by no means regarded higher. He has been unstoppable within the postseason.

Jason Reid, Andscape senior author: Mahomes. The NFL’s finest participant desires to change into the best of all time by profitable his fourth award.

Jeremy Fowler, nationwide NFL reporter: Barkley. He’s a near-unstoppable-force, averaging greater than 150 speeding yards per recreation over his previous 5 video games. If the Eagles win, he’ll be the catalyst.

Is Saquon Barkley the most important risk to a Chiefs three-peat?

Louis Riddick and Dan Orlovsky element how the Chiefs’ protection stopping Saquon Barkley is the important thing to a Tremendous Bowl victory.

Lindsey Thiry, nationwide NFL reporter: Mahomes has led the Chiefs to 3 Tremendous Bowl titles and was named the MVP in every. He is a confirmed champion who again and again has lifted his staff to many inconceivable victories. It’s unfathomable to foretell anybody else however the star quarterback because the Most Precious Participant.

Seth Walder, analytics author: Hurts. Quarterbacks — sure, I imagine even these on the identical staff as Barkley — have such an edge on this market. If the Eagles do certainly win, it is just about sure Hurts could have made some huge performs. And so long as the receiving manufacturing is unfold out throughout a few gamers, the award will default again to him.

Learn Extra: Specialists predict Chiefs-Eagles rating, MVP … Betting buzz: An O-lineman for MVP?

Stats to know

Group stats: Chiefs | Eagles

Chiefs

Mahomes has 4 straight playoff victories when trailing initially of the fourth quarter, which is the longest streak by a quarterback all time. It began in opposition to the Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LVII.

Together with the playoffs, Chris Jones ranks third in move rush win charge (15.3%) amongst inside defenders regardless of rating fifth in double-team charge (70%).

This might be Reid’s forty fifth playoff recreation as a head coach (with the Chiefs and Eagles), passing Invoice Belichick for probably the most all time. He’s the primary head coach to face his former staff twice within the Tremendous Bowl.

The Chiefs have received 9 straight postseason video games courting to the 2022 postseason, which is tied for the second-longest streak in NFL postseason historical past. The Patriots received 10 straight from 2001 to 2005.

Kansas Metropolis is sporting white jerseys for the second time in its three straight Tremendous Bowl appearances. Courting to Tremendous Bowl XXXIX within the 2004 season, the staff sporting white jerseys has received 16 of the previous 20 Tremendous Bowls. The Chiefs wore pink jerseys of their Tremendous Bowl LIV and LVIII wins.

Eagles

Hurts already has probably the most speeding touchdowns by a quarterback within the postseason (9). One other rating will make him the ninth participant all time to succeed in 10. Solely two others have finished that within the twenty first century — Marshawn Lynch (12) and LeGarrette Blount (11).

The Eagles want 27 factors for probably the most in a single postseason in NFL historical past. The file was set by the 1994 49ers (131), who achieved the mark in a single much less recreation.

There have been 36 gamers to see at the very least 75 targets in protection this season, together with the playoffs. DeJean and Mitchell rank second and third, respectively, in yards per goal allowed as the closest defender in protection, trailing the Texans’ Derek Stingley Jr., per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.

Barkley wants 30 yards to surpass Terrell Davis’ 1998 file for probably the most speeding yards in a single season (2,476), together with the playoffs. Since Steve Spagnuolo turned the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator in 2019, Kansas Metropolis has not allowed any participant to hurry for 100 yards in opposition to them within the playoffs.

The Eagles completed the common season with extra rush makes an attempt (621) than move makes an attempt (448). Out of the primary 40 Tremendous Bowl champions, 33 had extra rushes than move makes an attempt of their Tremendous Bowl profitable seasons (83%). Since 2006, the 2013 Seahawks are the one staff to do this.

Learn extra: Tremendous Bowl LIX by the numbers: Key stats for Chiefs-Eagles … Tremendous Bowl historical past: Details, stats, and data to know

Daring predictions

Worthy will end as the highest huge receiver in receiving yards. The rookie’s velocity and flexibility are precisely what Reid will wish to leverage in opposition to the Eagles, particularly when he is up in opposition to Mitchell. The Eagles might battle to concentrate on shutting down one receiving playmaker for the Chiefs. Bracketing Travis Kelce or JuJu Smith-Schuster opens the door for Worthy to capitalize on one-on-one matchups. — Eric Moody, NFL analyst

Hollywood Brown will rating the game-winning TD. Brown could have an enormous day, gathering at the very least 125 receiving yards. He’ll clinch Kansas Metropolis’s three-peat by discovering the tip zone with seconds to go. — Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

Tremendous Bowl LIX betting: Chiefs-Eagles

• Full Tremendous Bowl Betting Information• Mike Clay’s Tremendous Bowl betting playbook• Props historical past: The Fridge, Philly Particular• A Swiftie’s information to Taylor-themed props• My first guess: Preliminary performs for the sport• Chiefs open as fave | Sport, MVP odds• Ideas for rookies | Buzz: Line transfer?LIX protection | Betting dwelling

The Eagles will win convincingly. Even once we exclude Week 18 (each groups rested gamers), the Eagles maintain a solid-to-sizable edge in offensive, defensive and total EPA. The 2024 Chiefs are notorious for his or her knack of discovering methods to sneak by with wins, however the Eagles have had about the identical success within the win column after a sluggish begin (each are 15-1 of their previous 16 video games, excluding Week 18) and have finished so in a extra convincing style. — Mike Clay, NFL analyst

Barkley will rush for 125-plus yards and earn MVP honors within the course of. Of the 19 video games Barkley has performed this season, he has rushed for over 100 yards in 14 of them, topping 200 yards twice. Count on the Eagles to put on down a stable Chiefs protection and — as was the case most frequently this season — the majority of Barkley’s manufacturing will come within the second half. — Stephania Bell, NFL analyst

The deciding play will come from the foot of 1 staff’s kicker. Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has had a troublesome common season, lacking eight whole area objectives — that’s as many as he missed over the prior three seasons mixed. However he, like Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker, has made no scarcity of big-time kicks for Philadelphia in his profession. By some means, a way, this recreation looks like it is going to be a decent one and a area purpose may very well be the distinction. — Discipline Yates, NFL analyst

Who’s in, and who’s out?

Damage studies: Chiefs | Eagles

Vast receiver Skyy Moore is listed as uncertain with an stomach damage, however Kansas Metropolis ought to have its choose of the remainder of its gamers for the Tremendous Bowl. The Chiefs took benefit of the three weeks between clinching the AFC’s prime playoff seed in Week 17 and taking part in their preliminary postseason recreation within the divisional spherical to offer injured gamers like Mahomes (ankle), Jones (calf) and Isiah Pacheco (fibula) an prolonged break. Then the staff was lucky to not undergo a major damage in both of its playoff video games. Moore hasn’t performed a single snap since October. — Teicher

Heart Cam Jurgens (again) and left guard Landon Dickerson (knee) missed components of the NFC title recreation due to accidents. However Jurgens and Dickerson have been full contributors at observe this week and each have spoken optimistically about taking part in. DeVonta Smith has been restricted this week with a hamstring damage however intends to play. Veteran defensive finish Brandon Graham, who got here up with the game-defining strip sack of Tom Brady in Tremendous Bowl LII, has been working again from a torn left triceps and is hopeful to go well with up. There’s a likelihood the Eagles could have all of their authentic starters out there besides linebacker Nakobe Dean, who tore the patellar tendon in his left knee through the wild-card recreation in opposition to the Packers. — McManus

What to know in regards to the officiating

Ron Torbert is one among three referees the NFL has trusted to work the Tremendous Bowl on this decade. He joins Invoice Vinovich and Carl Cheffers to every obtain two Tremendous Bowl assignments since 2020. In his first look (Tremendous Bowl LVI), Torbert’s crew took a again seat for a lot of the sport, declining to throw a flag for a potential offensive move interference or face masks name on Bengals receiver Tee Higgins, and totaling solely 4 flags by the primary 58 minutes of the sport. The Rams’ profitable possession, nevertheless, featured 4 extra flags, together with two in opposition to Bengals move defenders within the pink zone.

In 2024, Torbert’s regular-season crew threw the third-most flags within the NFL (17.1). His divisional spherical crew threw 12 flags, six apiece in opposition to the Commanders and Lions, however none for both roughing the passer or offensive holding. — Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter

Learn extra: NFL names Torbert referee for Tremendous Bowl LIX … NFLRA says theories that officers favor Chiefs ‘insulting’ … Goodell shuts down notion NFL officers a fan of Chiefs … Inexperience of Tremendous Bowl officers is ‘large departure’

guess Tremendous Bowl LIX

Present line from ESPN BET Sportsbook: Chiefs -1, O/U 48.5

Since 2021, underdogs are 4-0 in opposition to the unfold and 3-1 outright within the Tremendous Bowl. Underdogs are 22-36 outright and 29-27-2 ATS within the Tremendous Bowl all time. The Chiefs are 4-2 outright and ATS within the Tremendous Bowl, profitable and overlaying in every of the previous two seasons.

Mahomes is 3-1 outright and ATS within the Tremendous Bowl. All of Mahomes’ Tremendous Bowls have featured strains of three factors or much less. The factors whole hit the over in each of the Chiefs’ previous two Tremendous Bowl appearances. The whole for the pending Chiefs-Eagles matchup opened at 49.5 at ESPN BET.

Learn extra: Up to date odds and developments for Chiefs-Eagles … Individuals anticipated to guess $1.39B legally on Tremendous Bowl … Betting for rookies … Your information to creating the perfect picks on Sunday (ESPN+) … A Swiftie’s information to Taylor-themed Tremendous Bowl prop bets … Mike Clay’s playbook (ESPN+)

What to know earlier than betting on Tremendous Bowl LIX

Try what it’s essential to know earlier than Sunday’s huge recreation with this ESPN BET primer on Tremendous Bowl LIX.

Who’s taking part in the halftime present?

Kendrick Lamar will carry out on the halftime present. He’s a 22-time Grammy winner, and in 2018, he turned the primary non-classical, non-jazz musician to win a Pulitzer Prize for his album “DAMN.”

Lamar’s final album, “GNX,” was launched in November. He garnered a lot consideration in 2024 along with his diss observe “Not Like Us,” which was aimed toward fellow hip-hop star Drake. On the 67th Grammy Awards, “Not Like Us” received 5 awards: Music of the Yr, Document of the Yr, Finest Rap Music, Finest Music Video and Finest Rap Efficiency. 5-time Grammy winner SZA might be a particular visitor in Lamar’s efficiency.

Learn extra: Lamar previews his upcoming halftime present … Most searched Tremendous Bowl halftime exhibits … Who has carried out at Tremendous Bowl halftime present? … SZA to affix throughout Tremendous Bowl halftime efficiency