Ever since Main League Baseball launched the primary drip of its bat monitoring information this spring, I’ve been maintaining a tally of a specific leaderboard. I don’t know if anyone else cares a lot about it, however I’ve been fascinated by the quick swing leaderboard. I haven’t been monitoring it religiously; I’ve simply been checking in each couple of weeks. Additionally, I haven’t been it the way in which you’re presupposed to. I’m solely the underside of the checklist. I suppose that makes it not a lot a leaderboard as a trailerboard, however I don’t care. I’m excited about it as a result of there’s an honest-to-goodness horse race happening there.
A quick swing is one the place the barrel of the bat is touring at the least 75 mph when it strikes or comes closest to the ball. That quantity was chosen, per Mike Petriello, “as a result of that’s the road the place, on a per-swing foundation, a swing goes from adverse run worth for a hitter to common, on its approach to optimistic.” All issues being equal, it’s higher to swing laborious. On a person participant foundation, right here’s the correlation between fast-swing charge and wRC+. Roughly talking, 5 proportion factors of fast-swing charge is price three additional factors of wRC+:
Right here’s one thing which will shock you: Quick-swing charge (R = .48) has a stronger correlation to wRC+ than common bat velocity does (R = .41). I assume that that is the case for a similar purpose that Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity is a extra helpful stat than common exit velocity. You’re ignoring an enormous chunk of much less helpful data and specializing in the swings that may end up in actual injury.
To be clear, there’s a sure form of bias baked into these numbers. It’s not simply that quick swings are higher, it’s that almost all gamers must put themselves in good place to get off their greatest swing. The extra you need to alter to the pitch since you didn’t time it up proper or as a result of it moved in a route you weren’t anticipating, the extra you need to change your mechanics, which can drag down your bat velocity. Due to this fact, gamers with higher pitch recognition, higher plate self-discipline, and extra adaptable swings will get off tougher swings extra usually. The very best bat velocity recorded to this point is 88 mph, however 25 totally different gamers have hit at the least 87.7 mph, and 67 totally different gamers have hit at the least 87.0. In different phrases, plenty of gamers are able to hitting the ball as laborious as Aaron Decide or Shohei Ohtani. The true differentiator is their skill to get to that energy frequently.
The underside of the checklist works similarly. There are many gamers who not often swing laborious, however they’ve totally different causes for it. Few of the gamers on the very backside of the quick swing leaderboard have the capability to swing as laborious as Oneil Cruz. Nonetheless, some are deliberately taking shorter, softer cuts as a result of they’re prioritizing stable contact, whereas some (I’m so sorry, Charlie Blackmon) appear to be swinging softly as a result of they only can’t put themselves in a superb place to drive the ball. At present, we’re within the two gamers who greatest exemplify the soft-swing-to-celebration pipeline: Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan.
I’ve been checking the underside of the quick swing leaderboard for one purpose: For many of the season, neither Arraez nor Kwan had registered a single quick swing. They have been at 0.0%. They have been the one certified gamers with double zeroes, and I used to be rooting laborious for them to make it via the entire season that approach. By means of July 9, Kwan was operating a 172 wRC+, fifth greatest in baseball, whereas Arraez was at 104. The leaderboard was lovely and it seemed like this:
Alas, nothing gold can keep. On July 10, Arraez noticed a juicy 96.5-mph four-seamer from Bryce Miller proper over the center of the plate. The Crown Prince of Cromulent Contact lastly caved to his internal caveman, unleashing a 77.1-mph swing that resulted in a 97.9-mph bullet — proper to second base for a simple groundout:
And identical to that, it was a one-horse race. Regardless of coming from nowhere to slug .512 within the first half, Kwan stood alone as the one certified participant in baseball who hadn’t registered a single quick swing all season. Perhaps that stress was an excessive amount of for him, as a result of he solely lasted one other 13 days earlier than becoming a member of Arraez. (Extra possible, Kwan was merely urgent, as he was at that time mired in one of many worst slumps of his brief profession.) Like Arraez, Kwan yanked a innocent grounder to the suitable facet of the infield. Not like Arraez, he didn’t even make nice contact, sending a Shelby Miller splitter on the backside of the zone to first base with a 76.5-mph swing:
A bit of over two weeks later, Kwan lapsed once more, however at the least this time he obtained his cash’s price. Simeon Woods Richardson put an especially hittable four-seamer belt excessive and proper over the center, and Kwan acknowledged the providing with the bare-minimum quick swing, a 75-mph lower that despatched the ball 396 ft into the suitable area bleachers:
Though that was the quickest tracked swing of Kwan’s season, it solely ranked twentieth by way of exit velocity. That’s one of many methods that each of those gamers possess. They’re so good at squaring the ball up that they don’t essentially must swing laborious. Again when bat monitoring information got here out, the method for figuring out precisely how squared-up any batted ball is was launched as effectively. It’s a easy proportion primarily based on the velocity of the pitch and the velocity of the bat. It appears like this:
Squared-Up Proportion = EV / ((Bat Velocity x 1.23) + (0.2116 x Pitch Velocity))
Utilizing that method, let me hit you with a trick query: Each time Participant A swings, they’ve a bat velocity of 65 mph, they usually sq. the ball up at 90%. Each time Participant B swings, they’ve a bat velocity of 75 mph, they usually sq. the ball up at 80%. Who hits the ball tougher?
I informed you this was a trick query. They’re practically equivalent. Participant A hits the ball 91.0 mph, whereas Participant B hits it 90.7 mph. Remember that the squared-up cutoff is 80%. Remember that a mean bat velocity of 75 would put you close to the highest of the league and 65 mph would put you close to the very backside. Each single time, Participant B is squaring the ball up and swinging with the bat velocity of the typical house run, however they’re nonetheless a hair beneath Participant A. Kwan and Arraez are by no means going to problem for the league lead in exit velocity, however they sq. the ball up each usually and effectively.
I’d like to finish on one thing that’s positively not statistically important, so don’t take it too critically, however I nonetheless suppose it’s fairly fascinating. In the beginning of this text, I discussed that 75 mph is the cutoff for a quick swing as a result of, on common, that’s the place swings begin to accrue optimistic run worth. It takes a humongous pattern, like entire-league humongous, to make these numbers statistically important. On a person participant foundation, any correlation you discover will probably be tiny, however I made a decision to have a look at each tracked swing this season from each Arraez and Kwan, after which calculate the correlation coefficients between their bat velocity and run worth. For Arraez, there was nearly no correlation in any way (R = .01) between bat velocity and run worth. Even if you happen to restrict the pattern to balls in play, the correlation solely will increase to .02. For Kwan, the correlation continues to be an especially weak .06, nevertheless it at the least appears to exist. Out of curiosity, I ran the numbers for Aaron Decide, and located a correlation of .09, going as much as .13 if you happen to look solely at balls in play. For Decide, tougher swings are inclined to see higher outcomes. For Kwan, and to a stunning extent for Arraez, the 2 are a lot much less associated. Since they don’t essentially must swing laborious to carry out effectively on the plate, possibly it’s time they deal with what’s most vital. Proper now Arraez is forward 1-to-2 within the Exhausting Swing Avoidance Sweepstakes. He’s obtained simply over a month to defend that lead.
