Common season losses don’t imply all that a lot, till you begin getting a whole lot of them. Then it’s dangerous, however after much more, it begins to change into good once more. The NBA is unusual.
For the Cs’ functions, although, shedding is disappointing, however not all that related. Regardless of their present 7-6 hunch, the Celtics ought to nonetheless cruise to mid-50s wins and a top-3 seed within the East.
What’s vital about shedding is studying from the way it occurred and adjusting accordingly, like when I’ve a footrace with my 3.5-year-old child. He learns that I’m greater, quicker, and stronger than him, and that I at all times can be (please permit me this delusion, as a result of getting older is tough).
Each NBA recreation is a wealth of knowledge factors, and the way the Celtics use them can be paramount of their process to repeat. The NBA Playoffs are finally about mitigating weaknesses greater than it’s about relying in your strengths, and there’s no higher stage for weaknesses than a loss.
So, let’s check out what occurs when the Celtics do stumble and whether or not they can do something to keep away from it, or in the event that they have already got. First up, the unavoidable:
Capturing variance losses
I’ll be trustworthy. There’s simply not a complete lot to glean from a taking pictures variance loss. They occur to everybody. They’re inevitable, like an ice cream headache for somebody with minimal self-control (somebody like me). Nonetheless, right here they’re.
1/5/24 Oklahoma Metropolis – This loss is the freshest in my thoughts and I do know many rushed to crown OKC because the kings of the NBA once they took down the Celtics with out Chet Holmgren or Alex Caruso. Was OKC’s protection glorious? Sure. Did it make the Cs uncomfortable? Sure. Was their protection the rationale the Celtics shot 3/20 on huge open 3s (no defender inside 6 toes) and eight/39 on huge open and open (defender inside 4-6 toes) 3s? Except they’re piloting some new ball management tech in OKC, then no, no it didn’t.
OKC, on the flip facet, shot 42% on a wholesome quantity and it nonetheless was a reasonably shut recreation till the previous couple of minutes. I pose one query, flip that shot variance and the way a lot do the Cs win by? 25? 30? 40? Sure, it is a coping mechanism, however I’m positive, I promise. I PROMISE OK?
12/23/24 Orlando – Basic recreation of being punished by the basketball gods. Celtics let the undermanned Magic hold in for a very long time after which they only saved making pictures. The Cs shot a hearty 24.2% from 3, whereas Orlando made 39.4% regardless of lacking all of their good gamers.
12/7/24 Memphis – Irritating recreation. Ja Morant went 4/6 from 3 regardless of taking pictures round 30% for the season getting into that recreation. He’s now hit the dizzying heights of 31%. Memphis shot 45.5% as a workforce whereas the Cs shot a Morant-esque 30% even. My recollections of this recreation are of Jaren Jackson Jr. carving up any huge in entrance of him, however actually it got here all the way down to the taking pictures disparity.
Once more, taking a look at these video games, not a ton to takeaway for my part. Generally Ja Morant goes to hit a number of threes he usually wouldn’t. Generally 3 of your finest gamers gained’t rating within the second half. Your favourite anomaly’s favourite anomaly.
Shedding on the margins
By lose on the margins, what I’m actually saying is whether or not the Celtics gained or misplaced the possession battle. How do you create additional possessions? Turnovers and offensive rebounds. I additionally put much less inventory in video games the Celtics lose on the margins through the common season than different losses outdoors of taking pictures variance. When the Cs are engaged and firing like within the playoffs, they hardly ever lose on the margins to such a level that it prices them a recreation.
With that mentioned, I discover shedding the turnover battle to be extra informative within the common season than shedding the rebounding battle. This model of the Cs has traditionally been a great to nice defensive rebounding workforce and center of the street offensively. Turnovers, then again, now we have seen chunk the Cs in a playoff setting.
1/10/25 Sacramento – The Kings rebounded 38.8% of their misses within the half court docket (per Cleansing the Glass). It in all probability gained’t shock you that quantity falls into the ninetieth percentile. This challenge is compounded by the actual fact the Cs had one among their worst offensive rebounding video games of the season, grabbing 22.2% of their misses within the half court docket (twenty fourth percentile). Yikes. The Celtics additionally misplaced the turnover battle, 12.1% TOV% to fifteen.3% TOV%. The outcome? The Kings took 102 FGAs to the Cs’ 84.
11/12/24 Atlanta – The possession-pocalypse. Atlanta turned the Celtics over 20 occasions and had 19 offensive rebounds. Though the Cs did flip Atlanta over 19 occasions, the Hawks took 97 pictures to the Celtics’ 75. Not a good way to win a basketball recreation.
Right here’s the excellent news, there’s solely two video games you possibly can blame the margins for. Do I nonetheless randomly verify for my pockets afraid that Dyson Daniels has stolen it? Sure. Do I nonetheless look over my shoulder afraid Domantas Sabonis goes to come back flying over my again? Sure, however relating to do or die video games within the playoffs, I’m extraordinarily skeptical they are going to permit themselves to lose like this. The Celtics are a really low turnover workforce and stable on each ends of the glass. Their solely actual weak point is forcing turnovers, and they’re trending in the proper path with that (18th within the league within the final 10 video games). The Cs are excellent on the margins, and so they’ve continued to be all through this considerably disappointing stretch.
The ball stress and rim safety frustrations
This one may be worrying, though a few of it’s effort-based. Groups are inclined to slack on ball stress within the common season besides when issues come down the stretch, however there’s a line. The Celtics have flown previous that line a number of occasions this 12 months into sheer laziness. When the outer crust of your protection will get blown by, it places bigs in a really tough place. They’re compelled to time their assist and make a play on the ball handler. All of the whereas the bottom protection should shift to cowl the serving to bigs’ man. The Celtics weren’t excellent at this for some time.
10/30/24 Indiana – Allowed Indy to shoot 37% of their pictures on the rim (73rd percentile) and 26% in brief mid (76th percentile). Forcing groups into the brief mid-range is often a win, however probably not in opposition to Indy. They’re fifth within the league in accuracy from that vary (though shot underneath their common this recreation). Indy generated 62 factors within the paint on this recreation.
11/6/24 Golden State – This one is much less about accuracy and extra about quantity. The Celtics held the Warriors to 64.7% on the rim (forty second percentile) and 21.1% in brief mid-range (4th percentile). The issue is that an insane 39% (81st percentile) of the Warriors pictures had been on the rim, and 59% had been on the rim or short-mid. They took 34 pictures on the rim to the Celtics’ 17. Golden State scored 52 or their 118 factors on the rim.
12/25/24 Philadelphia – It pains me to jot down this part, please know that. That is the inverse of Golden State, we saved Philly away from the rim pretty properly, however once they arrived there, they didn’t miss. Whereas they solely shot 17 pictures there, they made 14 of them. Whereas there was positively some taking pictures variance with this recreation, a whole lot of it was as a result of Maxey getting downhill and spraying out to shooters.
12/29/24 Indiana – Indy shot 32% of their pictures on the rim (52nd percentile) and 30% in brief mid-range (88th percentile). They shot 70.4% (62nd percentile) and 52% (seventy fifth percentile) in these areas respectively. 66 factors within the paint. This was a horrible defensive efficiency, nevertheless it may need been a great factor.
I say that as a result of because the second Indy recreation, the Celtics have altered their defensive strategy. They’re not leaving their bigs on an island to corral ball handlers and defend the rim. They’ve began sending assist earlier, and it’s working. Right here’s an instance of Pritchard peel switching with Vacation.
It’s a good way to restrict straight line drives and assist out your bigs. When you do it shortly sufficient, it doesn’t concede a lot of a bonus both. Sacramento doesn’t rating on the play above due to the peel swap, they rating as a result of JB needlessly gambled.
The proof is within the pudding to borrow a euphemism from my nice grandfather, who I by no means met however think about mentioned issues like that.
When you replace that quantity with the Pelicans recreation, it doesn’t change. The Cs can positively blame a number of losses on rim protection, and you possibly can make an argument for the Memphis recreation to fall on this class as properly, however Mazzulla has achieved what nice coaches do. He fastened it.
Poor offensive strategy
That is the one one that provides me some measure of concern. I wish to be clear that it’s a fairly small measure. I’m not involved about this workforce’s offense long-term, nevertheless it’s been irritating to look at at occasions. The offense has misplaced a little bit of that mismatch searching knife’s edge it had final season and nonetheless has at occasions this 12 months. There are in all probability a number of video games you possibly can put underneath this class that I didn’t, like OKC, however in these video games the taking pictures disparity was so huge, that I felt it outdated an imperfect offensive strategy. There are additionally a number of shut wins that won’t have been so shut if the Cs had been crisper on the offensive finish.
The video games beneath all have one thing in widespread: they’re all groups that the Celtics completely shouldn’t wrestle in opposition to offensively. Cleveland has the most effective protection of the bunch (eighth per Cleansing the Glass) however has a number of juicy matchups for the Celtics to assault. Chicago (twenty third) is downright dangerous.
12/19/24 Chicago – The Cs shot 39.2% in opposition to the twenty third ranked protection. 55.3% of their discipline objectives had been assisted, which isn’t an abomination, nevertheless it’s beneath common. 47% of their pictures had been above the break threes, good for 99th percentile.
12/1/24 Cleveland – A measly 44.7% of their made discipline objectives, and there weren’t a whole lot of them, had been assisted. Solely 21% of their pictures had been on the rim (eleventh percentile), and an uncharacteristic 13% from lengthy mid-range (ninetieth percentile). Whereas the Celtics didn’t shoot horribly from 3, 34.7%, they shot 40% general. Within the Cs’ protection, they had been lacking Jaylen Brown and Derrick White.
I feel the Celtics are nonetheless figuring out the kinks offensively, and taking pictures variance is completely making issues look worse than they are surely. Going by this train, I anticipated there to be extra commonality between the Celtics’ losses, and there actually isn’t. They’ve misplaced in quite a lot of methods, however the commonest approach they’ve misplaced is straight up lacking open pictures.
Maybe probably the most telling stat I discovered isn’t one which highlights their losses however highlights their wings. When the Celtics help on 65% or extra of their made discipline objectives, they’re 14-1. It’s the fallacious strategy to guage this minor tough patch from the angle of “what can they do to cease shedding.” We must be taking a look at it from the attitude of “what does this workforce do when it wins,” and share the ball and restrict rim makes an attempt are two of the mainstays. Whereas the Celtics’ December was rocky, they’re additionally the entire sudden 5-2 of their final seven. And we all know come the Playoffs, I don’t suppose I’ll have all that many examples for any of those classes.
