The Best and Worst Baserunning Plays of the Postseason

It’s not onerous to recollect who had the largest hits of the postseason, neither is it onerous to recollect which celebrity sluggers got here up brief. However what in regards to the parts of offense that don’t happen on the plate? This previous October had no scarcity of riveting performs on the basepaths, so I believed it will be enjoyable to look again at a few of the most skillful baserunning, a few of the least skillful baserunning, and both approach, a few of the most consequential baserunning performs of the 2024 playoffs.

To calculate baserunning worth, the intense minds at Baseball Savant have developed a system that estimates runs above or beneath common for 10 completely different classes of “advance alternatives” on balls in play. There may be actually room for disagreement with the way in which the automated system evaluates performs, however these numbers are an excellent jumping-off level. That’s very true in terms of unhealthy performs, for which there’s a transparent delineation between probably the most dangerous baserunning selections and extra forgivable errors.

Six runners bumped into an out that price their workforce 0.80 runs or extra this postseason. No different baserunning play scored worse than -0.20 runner runs. Right here’s a chart and a video compilation of these six disastrous selections. I’ve additionally included Savant’s seventh-most detrimental baserunning play of the postseason for comparability:

The choices by Bohm and Malloy to attempt for second, in addition to third base coach Luis Rojas’ option to wave Torres house, had been all various levels of justifiable. That’s to not say any of them had been good performs, nevertheless it’s vital to keep in mind that getting thrown out doesn’t essentially imply a baserunner made a mistake. A participant who by no means will get thrown out on the bases isn’t taking sufficient dangers.

Stanton’s out at house is on the high of the checklist for a purpose. It was robust to look at him lumbering down the third bottom line within the second, and it’s even tougher to look at in hindsight once I know the end result. It makes me really feel like I’m watching a horror film, however as an alternative of desirous to scream at Stanton to remain out of the basement, I wish to inform him to carry up it doesn’t matter what Rojas was signaling. I may say the identical of Perez, who’s each bit as sluggish as Stanton. Juan Soto made a terrific throw, however all the identical, third base coach Vance Wilson had no enterprise sending Perez on that play. As for the inelegant slide into house, that’s all on Perez.

That being stated, I hesitate to name both of these performs the worst instance of baserunning within the postseason. For one factor, it’s clear from the clips that their coaches had been extra accountable. What’s extra, it will be fairly boring of me to choose one of many greatest, slowest gamers within the recreation because the wrongdoer behind the worst baserunning flub of October. In order that brings me to Winker in Sport 1 of the NLCS.

Right here’s that play another time:

By my depend, Winker made three baserunning blunders in a really brief time. His first mistake was taking too far of a flip round second base. His second mistake was realizing his first mistake and briefly turning again towards second earlier than altering his thoughts as soon as once more and persevering with towards third. His third mistake was giving up far too simply. He didn’t bolt for third and attempt to slide below Max Muncy’s tag, nor did he power the Dodgers to run him down, which could have given Jose Iglesias an opportunity to achieve second base. Moderately than placing up a struggle, he mainly simply admitted defeat.

The Dodgers went on to win that recreation 9-0. Winker’s poor baserunning was hardly the one factor that did the Mets in. Nonetheless, if he’d held up at second base, it will have been the one time in your entire recreation the Mets had a runner in scoring place with no outs. As a substitute, Winker killed what little momentum the Mets nearly mustered. So, of the 513 ball-in-play baserunning occasions that Baseball Savant scored in the course of the playoffs, this will get my vote because the very worst of the lot.

I additionally went again and watched each caught stealing and pickoff play of the postseason to search out the worst little bit of baserunning that didn’t come on a ball in play. Not one of the straight-up caught stealing performs stand out to me as notably egregious, though I made a compilation video so you possibly can choose for yourselves. The compilation additionally consists of Matt Vierling getting caught at second — a play that technically wasn’t thought-about as a stolen base try, presumably as a result of it will have been formally scored a wild pitch if he had been protected:

As for the pickoffs, all 4 look embarrassing for the baserunners. Pickoffs nearly at all times do. Right here they’re, and I apologize prematurely that the clip of Trevino’s pickoff on MLB Movie Room is incomplete. However it’s not like you possibly can’t extrapolate what’s going to occur. I additionally included Anthony Rizzo’s TOOTBLAN is Sport 2 of the ALCS. Just like the Vierling play, it technically wasn’t scored as a pickoff as a result of it began with a ball within the filth, nevertheless it’s shut sufficient for our functions:

The clip of Francisco Lindor is a foul search for the usually glorious baserunner. The digicam exhibits that Lindor misinterpret pitcher Brent Honeywell and began to take off for second base far too quickly. Honeywell made him pay. Rizzo’s rundown was embarrassing, too, though after seeing the way in which Winker responded in a considerably comparable state of affairs, I’ll give Rizzo credit score for making a bit extra of an effort.

The very worst of all these caught stealing and pickoff performs got here simply earlier than Rizzo’s slip-up. Two batters earlier, Jazz Chisholm Jr. additionally bumped into an out at second, and this one was a correct pickoff. It was the one occasion out of all of the caught stealing and pickoff performs I confirmed you by which the runner was already safely in scoring place with no outs. There was little purpose for Chisholm to take such an aggressive lead towards third base. (Apparently the Yankees had been planning to try a double steal, however Chisholm took off too early). Based on Baseball Reference WPA, Chisholm’s pickoff was probably the most dangerous caught stealing or pickoff play of the postseason (-0.076 WPA). It was additionally, by far, the worst caught stealing or pickoff play by championship Win Likelihood Added, lowering the Yankees’ possibilities of successful the World Collection by 1.21%. And but, I can’t blame Chisholm an excessive amount of for his aggressive leads as a result of, as you’re about to see, he was additionally liable for a few of the absolute best baserunning performs we noticed this previous October.

It’s considerably tougher to determine the perfect baserunning performs than the worst. Merely put, it’s a lot simpler to search out performs by which a runner bumped into an out than to separate the perfect development selections from extra commonplace ones. A runner goes from first to 3rd on a single nearly each recreation; when is that good baserunning versus routine execution? All this to say, there aren’t any optimistic baserunning performs value upwards of 0.80 runner runs on Baseball Savant. The highest three performs of the postseason every added 0.25 runs of worth. The following six got here in at +0.24 runs. That stated, these information nonetheless provide a great jumping-off level for this train.

I went digging for the highest 10 baserunning performs on balls in play this postseason and got here again with 11 as a consequence of a tie on the backside of the checklist. Listed below are these 11 performs in chart kind:

I wasn’t blown away by any of the three performs with a +0.25 run worth. All three had been the results of at the least one defensive miscue and none concerned a aggressive throw. Understanding the right way to benefit from poor protection is actually a talent, as is shifting quick sufficient to take an additional base with out the protection even bothering to make a throw. Very similar to how the perfect defenders make robust performs look routine, the perfect baserunners could make low-percentage developments look simple. Nonetheless, check out these three clips, and I’m certain you’ll forgive me for skipping previous them as I attempt to discover the perfect baserunning performs of the playoffs.

I used to be rather more impressed with a couple of of the performs that had a +0.24 and +0.23 run worth. However let’s begin with the 5 that didn’t flip my head. Lindor made a pleasant slide to safe a double in Sport 2 of the Wild Card Collection, however he was solely protected as a result of Turang couldn’t maintain onto the ball to use the tag. In the meantime, Stott bolted his solution to an RBI triple in Sport 2 of the NLDS, however everybody was protected with no aggressive throw.

Transferring on to the NLCS, Ohtani scored from first on a Mookie Betts double in Sport 1, however he did so with no throw. Certainly, the Mets fairly clearly knew he was going to attain properly earlier than the ball landed within the cutoff man’s glove. Then, in Sport 4 of the NLCS, Marte doubled as a result of Betts badly misinterpret a groundball to proper discipline. Lastly, Volpe earned 0.23 runs of baserunning credit score for a double within the World Collection, however he would have been out if Lux hadn’t misplaced the baseball. Right here’s a compilation of these 5 performs to your viewing pleasure:

Now, let’s get to the three performs I actually preferred. Again within the NLDS, Lux made an excellent learn on an Enrique Hernández single to shallow middle and sprinted from first to 3rd, beating Jackson Merrill’s throw. Meadows additionally made a terrific learn on a pop fly within the ALDS, turning what may have been a routine out right into a double. Right here’s what these two performs regarded like:

Nonetheless, of those 11 baserunning performs, one clearly stood above the remaining. Right here is Chisholm scoring from second on an Alex Verdugo single in all its glory:

This was terrific tv from begin to finish. The thoughts video games happening between Chisholm and Michael Lorenzen had been nearly palpable. The footwork dance battle between Chisholm and Bobby Witt Jr. was pleasant. Chisholm’s choice to not slide may have been disastrous, however as an alternative it labored out completely (though the house plate umpire may disagree). And the higher context of the sport solely makes the play extra thrilling. Chisholm was solely at second base due to a controversial protected name on a stolen base earlier within the inning. The umpire on the sector known as him protected. The umpires in New York discovered the replay proof inconclusive, although it appeared fairly clear to the typical viewer that Chisholm was out. Whereas a much less brave baserunner might need exercised extra warning after surviving by the pores and skin of his enamel, Chisholm remained aggressive. It paid off.

Based on Baseball Reference WPA, Verdugo’s single was the tenth most beneficial ball in play (i.e. non-homer) of the postseason. A couple of of these 9 different performs concerned good baserunning, however there have been none, I’d argue, by which good baserunning was fairly as important to the shift in win likelihood. Have a look for your self. (Facet observe: Whereas placing this compilation collectively, I discovered that MLB movie room gained’t allow you to make a video with the phrase “balls” within the title. Looks like a design flaw.)

So, Chisholm will get my vote for the perfect ball-in-play baserunning play of the postseason. And that’s not all. He additionally offered the 2 most consequential stolen bases of the postseason, in response to Baseball Reference WPA and cWPA. Not solely that, however these two stolen bases got here three pitches aside within the high of the tenth inning of Sport 1 of the World Collection. One other three pitches later, he scored what would have been the successful run if not for Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam. Even with no compilation video of the opposite 60 stolen bases this October, I really feel assured giving Chisholm the crown for the perfect stolen base sequence of the playoffs. Right here’s a take a look at the whole collection of occasions:

Not one of the performs I wrote about right this moment shall be remembered for almost so long as Freeman’s huge hits, Gerrit Cole’s valiant efforts, or the poor protection that finally sunk the Yankees in Sport 5. However I really like writing about baserunning exactly as a result of it will get far much less consideration than most different features of the sport. I’m glad I had the prospect to look again on all this motion on the basepaths earlier than all of us flip our consideration to the offseason forward.