The Call-Up: Orelvis Martinez | Baseball Prospectus

The State of affairs: Bo Bichette has struggled and is now harm (or maybe struggled whereas harm). However in any case he has hit the injured record, to get replaced by the Jays high hitting prospect, Orelvis Martinez.

The Background:  Martinez was a seven-figure-bonus signing from the Jays 2018 IFA class. He was instantly introduced stateside in 2019, and slugged practically .550 as a 17-year-old within the GCL. We bought commensurate robust reside studies, however again then did are usually pretty conservative with complex-level bats. He ranked eighth in a deep Jays system that 12 months as we awaited a 2020 full-season ball project. That after all needed to wait till 2021, though we bought robust studies on Martinez throughout his instructs time on the finish of 2020. The now 19-year-old Martinez slugged .549 as soon as once more, this time cut up between two A-ball ranges. He did battle a bit after his promotion to the Northwest League, and total regarded extra like a future third baseman than shortstop. However the energy regarded extraordinarily actual, so he checked in at third on the Jays record and no. 62 on the Prime 101. Martinez’s transition to the higher minors was bumpy. As one of many youngest gamers within the Japanese League in 2022, he did swat 30 residence runs, however noticed his strikeout charge balloon and his OBP dip below .300. So his prospect inventory dropped a bit as nicely. He bought some 101 consideration however ended up simply off, and fell to quantity 5 on Toronto’s group record. His second move at Double-A went a bit higher—though he spent a lot of the season getting reps at infield spots aside from shortstop—and was even higher after his promotion to Buffalo. He popped again onto the Prime 101, as he was near the majors and this sort of energy from a participant nonetheless of their early 20s is uncommon. Martinez has kind of xeroxed his 2023 Worldwide League line up to now in 2024, and after logging over 300 video games within the higher minors, is clearly prepared for a serious league stress take a look at.

The Scouting Report: Martinez has been a notable prospect for over half a decade, so maybe a little bit of fatigue has set in. And he does have some pretty apparent flaws, however he’s additionally close to the highest of the Triple-A leaderboards in some essential energy markers (ninetieth percentile exit velocity and harm charge to call two). And if you have a look at these classes—and SEAGER the place he’s additionally within the high 20—you’ll discover him surrounded largely by older prospects with major-league time below their belts (and in addition actually Junior Caminero). Okay, however what about these flaws? Nicely, to get to that energy, Martinez has a giant previous stomp and carry swing, taking fairly lengthy rips by way of the zone. He’s hitting the ball even tougher this 12 months—not shocking given Baseball America’s analysis on exit velocities relative to age—however he can generally battle to persistently pull the ball or alter to offspeed stuff. Martinez’s energy will play line-to-line, and he’s aggressive within the zone with out being that a lot of a free swinger outdoors of it, however the contact profile runs a little bit of a knife’s edge, and the bounce from Triple-A to the majors could also be as massive because it’s ever been. If he can hit .240, he’s a great common, however any lower than that you find yourself within the Patrick Knowledge/Jack Suwinski/Jo Adell vary.  Martinez ought to have a bit extra defensive worth than that group although. He’s enjoying second and third completely now, and he would possibly see time at each spots within the majors, and ought to be not less than common at both with the glove.

Rapid Main-League Future:  Martinez is a bat-first profile, and power-over-hit at that, so that you don’t know for positive how he’s going to fare in opposition to main league spin till he sees it. It’s not fully shocking he’s sitting in opposition to Tanner Houck tonight—he most likely simply bought off a aircraft and that sweeper is hellacious even in the event you’ve seen pitches prefer it earlier than. Bichette’s calf difficulty would possibly solely require a short-term IL stint, and the stability of the Jays’s season rises and falls with him greater than every other participant. However I supposed Martinez doesn’t actually must displace Bichette, given the infield tonight is Spencer Horwitz, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ernie Clement. He has way more offensive upside than that trio, he would possibly simply not get sufficient major-league time to point out it.

Fantasy Impression: There’s a form of catch-22 with Martinez as a fantasy useful resource, in that he’d be extra thrilling if he was becoming a member of a wholesome, high-functioning Blue Jays offense, however his promotion may not have come now if the offense was both wholesome or performing at a excessive stage. As it’s, the 22-year-old is stepping in for what ought to be one of many group’s stars, Bichette, and stepping right into a lineup that’s twenty fourth within the league in runs per sport. —Jeffrey Paternostro

The aforementioned paradox does work in Martinez’s favor as nicely, although—if he have been becoming a member of the group as an ancillary piece he may not be in an important place to place up the sort of stats we care about, however with Bichette out and the remainder of the lineup wanting pedestrian it may very well be a chance for the shortstop to occupy some worthwhile lineup actual property from day one. As famous above, if the thump in his bat performs on the highest stage, Martinez is a really intriguing participant each in actual life and in our sport. Should you can’t threat the batting common hit or simply merely don’t want the facility that he brings, look elsewhere; in any other case, you’d do nicely to catch 13. (Sorry, not sorry.) —Nathan Grimm