The Rays Are Running Rampant

Getting into Thursday, the Tampa Bay Rays had stolen 35 bases of their earlier 15 video games. Even on this new age of elevated stolen base charges, that’s spectacular. Just one different workforce has swiped no less than 35 baggage over 15 video games because the implementation of the brand new guidelines: the Tampa Bay Rays in Might 2023. Earlier than that, just one different workforce had completed the feat within the twenty first century: the Tampa Bay Rays in Might 2009. The final time a workforce aside from the Rays stole so many bases in so few video games was earlier than the Rays franchise even existed; in 1992, the Milwaukee Brewers loved two distinct 15-game stretches with no less than 35 stolen baggage.

Maybe 35 and 15 aren’t spherical sufficient numbers for you. In that case, you’ll be comfortable to listen to that the 2024 Rays are the very first workforce within the pitch clock/disengagement restrict/greater bases period to steal 50 bases in any 25-game span; they pulled it off between July 21 and August 18 (and once more from July 22 to August 19, and July 23 to August 20). The final workforce to attain this specific feat was — you guessed it — the 2009 Rays, and earlier than them, the 1992 Brewers.

In the event you return any additional, 50 steals in 25 video games begins to change into fairly widespread. In any case, stolen bases have been all the fashion from the late Seventies to the early ’90s. Nonetheless, the modern-day Rays stand out for his or her effectivity. Since 1976, there have been 312 cases of a workforce stealing no less than 50 bases in a 25-game span (together with overlapping spans). With an 89.3% success charge over their finest 25-game stretch, the 2024 Rays rank eleventh on that record, trailing solely these 2009 Rays (5 overlapping stretches) and Vince Coleman’s 1985 Cardinals (5 overlapping stretches):

What’s extra, the Rays have managed to tug this off regardless of not reaching base fairly often. On-base proportion is way from an ideal proxy for stolen base alternatives, however gamers do must get on base so as to steal one. With a .301 OBP from July 23 to August 20, the 2024 Rays have the Fifteenth-lowest OBP on the record of 312. Solely three distinct groups (once more, since 1976) have managed to steal no less than 50 bases in 25 video games with a decrease OBP: the 1976 Athletics (throughout 9 overlapping stretches), the 1988 Astros (4 overlapping stretches), and the 1988 Cardinals:

On prime of all that, the Rays’ latest stolen base frenzy is very fascinating contemplating how lackluster their stolen base numbers have been over the primary three months of the season. From March to June, the Rays stole 81 bases in 84 video games. That’s not dangerous. However that wasn’t the issue. The difficulty, as you may need guessed, is that the Rays have been caught 32 occasions. Their 71.7% success charge was properly beneath the 77.8% league common. Accordingly, they ranked twenty fifth within the majors with -2.4 stolen base runs (wSB). Right here’s how that broke down by month:

But, Tampa Bay has utterly turned issues round amid the most popular months of the summer time. The Rays stole three bases with out getting caught throughout their first sport in July. From then on, they began stealing extra typically and succeeding at a better charge:

Throughout 24 video games in July, the Rays basically wiped their slate clear, elevating their -2.4 wSB to a impartial 0.0. Now, after simply 19 video games in August, they’ve moved as much as fourth place within the majors and first within the American League with 151 stolen bases and a 4.5 wSB on the season. No different workforce has come near matching Tampa Bay’s stolen base manufacturing since July 1.

Other than stolen bases, the remainder of the Rays’ baserunning has been persistently above-average all year long. So, their total baserunning worth (BsR) has gone from barely beneath common to properly above. That they had a -0.7 BsR on the finish of June — that quantity stands at 7.6 at the moment, an 8.3-run enchancment in simply 43 video games. For one of many lowest-scoring groups in baseball, these eight or so further runs have made a large distinction in serving to the Rays preserve their heads above water. Since July 1, they’re 22-21 with a +5 run differential.

Right here’s a have a look at all of the Rays’ stolen base makes an attempt in July and August damaged down by participant:

None of those are outrageous numbers, contemplating we’re speaking a few 43-game pattern. Josh Lowe leads the membership with 13 steals, however that’s solely sufficient for him to be tied for sixth within the majors; Shohei Ohtani, Xavier Edwards, and Elly De La Cruz all have upwards of 20 steals in the identical time interval. Certainly, whereas team-wide stolen base stats could be closely influenced by a single speedster (Ohtani is answerable for 56% of the Dodgers’ steals in July and August), that’s not the case in Tampa Bay.

As an alternative, a number of gamers have barely elevated their stolen base output. That’s partially resulting from early-season accidents; Lowe and Taylor Partitions missed vital time early within the yr, and so they have been way more apprehensive on the bases once they first returned. But, it goes past that. Seventy-two gamers have stolen no less than 5 bases since July 1. Seven of them have accomplished so in a Rays uniform. No different workforce can declare greater than 4. The Rays even have 11 gamers with no less than two stolen bases in that point, essentially the most within the majors, and 13 gamers with no less than one stolen base, tied for many within the league. That’s too many gamers to incorporate in a single MLB Movie Room reel, so that you’ll should accept a sampler plate of Tampa Bay’s stolen bases in July and August:

Similar to we will’t credit score one participant for the Rays’ latest success, no particular person is guilty for his or her struggles beforehand. José Caballero led the workforce with 9 thwarted stolen base makes an attempt via June, but he additionally efficiently stole 24 baggage and produced a +0.7 wSB. He has continued to run at nearly the very same charge and with the identical quantity of success because the begin of July. Nonetheless, the workforce’s improved success charge has to return from someplace. For one factor, it doesn’t harm that Randy Arozarena is not on the roster. Arozarena has at all times walked a high-quality line between aggressive baserunner (constructive connotation) and aggressive baserunner (unfavourable connotation). For his profession, he’s 98-for-139 in steal makes an attempt (70.5%) with a -0.9 wSB. Throughout his time with the Rays this yr, he was 16-for-23 (69.6%). Thus, it definitely helps that he has been a Mariner since July 26. It additionally helps that he went 10-for-16 with the Rays from March to June and 6-for-7 in July earlier than the commerce deadline.

Furthermore, two different Rays baserunners who have been answerable for a number of caught stealings over the primary three months of the season are not with the membership. Harold Ramírez went 5-for-7 earlier than he was DFA’d two months in the past, whereas Amed Rosario went 7-for-11 via June. Rosario improved to 2-for-2 in July earlier than he was traded on the deadline.

Nonetheless, not all of the baserunners who the Rays have misplaced have been additions by subtraction. Richie Palacios was 19-for-20 in steal makes an attempt via July, however he has not performed in any respect in August after struggling a knee damage, sadly sufficient, on a stolen base. Nonetheless, the Rays have had their finest stolen base month with out their most effective base-stealer.

It has absolutely helped that Jose Siri, the workforce’s least environment friendly base-stealer via June, has turned issues round. The middle fielder was a disastrous 7-for-13 in stolen base makes an attempt over the primary three months, however he has gone 5-for-6 since. Siri, blessed with 99th-percentile dash velocity, ought to nonetheless be an even bigger stolen base menace, however no less than this can be a step in the appropriate route. Only for enjoyable, right here’s a supercut of all six occasions Siri was thrown out on the bases from March to June:

I really feel compelled to say that though the Rays have been the very best base-stealing workforce as of late, essentially the most improved award really belongs to their fellow Floridians in Miami. Since July 1, the Rays have elevated their stolen bases per sport greater than another workforce within the AL. Nonetheless, the Marlins have elevated their stolen bases per sport much more than the Rays. The Marlins have additionally elevated their success charge greater than another workforce, going from final place within the majors via June 30 (64.1%) to sixth since July 1 (85.9%). What’s extra, the distinction between their wSB from March to June (-5.98) and their wSB from July onward (+4.37) is +10.3 runs. That’s the largest swing in both league; the Rays have seen the second largest swing at +9.2 runs.

Certainly, it seems big in-season swings in baserunning success aren’t all that unusual. Keep in mind these 2023 Rays who stole 35 baggage in 15 video games? Additionally they went on an extended stolen base run fairly just like the one we’re witnessing proper now. Throughout 43 video games from April 28 to June 12, they stole a league-best 71 bases in 79 makes an attempt (89.9%). They racked up 7.9 wSB. But, from June 13 onward, they ranked thirteenth in stolen bases and twenty third with a -2.6 wSB. Or how in regards to the 2009 Rays who stole 71 bases in 80 makes an attempt (88.8%) and compiled 9.3 wSB from April 6 to Might 21? They went 123-for-175 (70.3%) with -0.2 wSB the remainder of the way in which.

It’s not only a bizarre Florida factor, both. The Reds loved an equally spectacular stretch final season; they went 77-for-85 (90.6%) with an 8.6 wSB over a 43-game span from Might to July. Outdoors of that stretch, they have been solely 113-for-153 (73.9%) with a -2.5 wSB. In the meantime, this yr’s Brewers membership ranked among the many prime three groups in wSB in March/April, Might, and June. But, since July 1, they rank sixteenth within the majors with -0.3 wSB.

Part of this has to do with the accessible personnel (trades, accidents, call-ups, and many others.), however that normally doesn’t clarify all the pieces. The straightforward fact is that in-season stolen base numbers could be extremely risky. A sensible method to baserunning requires an understanding that you simply’re going to run into loads of outs. In different phrases, for a workforce just like the Rays to have a stretch during which they steal 70 bases in 81 makes an attempt, they’re possible additionally going to undergo some stretches during which they’re caught way more typically than they want. So, maybe the Rays are due for regression on the bases; this unbelievable run in all probability received’t final. Heck, they didn’t steal in any respect yesterday, so perhaps it’s already over. But, even when that’s true, they’ve constructed up sufficient worth over the previous a number of weeks that they’re nonetheless more likely to end as one of many higher baserunning groups within the league. The remainder of us ought to simply benefit from the Rays working rampant whereas we will.