The Saquon Barkley contract is probably bad. So what.

Within the early days of the soccer analytics motion, Soccer Outsiders (RIP) printed the polemic “Curse of 370.”

A working again with 370 or extra carries through the common season will normally undergo both a serious damage or a lack of effectiveness the next 12 months, until he’s named Eric Dickerson.

Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson, and Edgerrin James all blew out their knees. Earl Campbell, Jamal Lewis, and Eddie George went from legendary powerhouses to plodding, replacement-level gamers. Shaun Alexander struggled with foot accidents, and Curtis Martin needed to retire. That is what occurs when a working again is overworked to the purpose of getting at the very least 370 carries through the common season.

Whereas there have been some points with this, reminiscent of arbitrary endpoints–which they acknowledged–and survivorship bias, the overall level was true: working backs usually are not the bellcow that we thought they have been. The league took discover. Within the 4 season previous to the Curse of 370 being printed in 2004, six gamers had had 370 or extra speeding makes an attempt within the common season, since then, solely six have.

One thing should be the least necessary place on offense, and for years it has been the working again. The place is having fun with a little bit of a renaissance with Saquon Barkley topping 2000 yards, Derrick Henry almost hitting that mark for a second time, and excessive draft picks Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs being successes.

However nothing can change {that a} again who takes a beating finally pays the worth. Saquon Barkley had 370 touches within the common season, and 104 within the playoffs.

Let’s revisit excessive utilization RBs, reducing the brink to 350 touches as a result of the fashionable working again is each extra versatile and used much less, and likewise together with the playoffs as a result of our bodies usually are not magically resistant to put on and tear as a result of it occurs in January.

From 2014 to 2023, ten seasons, there have been 25 seasons of RBs who had 350+ touches together with playoffs. (Not together with Le’Veon Bell in 2017, who didn’t play the subsequent season in a contract dispute). Unsurprisingly, the outcomes weren’t good for them the subsequent 12 months. All however two gamers noticed their yards per contact decline, and people two gamers had a mixed 322 fewer touches.

Within the following season, simply six had greater than 300 touches. Solely 9 gamers had a drop off of lower than 0.5 yards per contact and performed at the very least half the season.

On common, these RBs dropped from 5.24 yards per contact to 4.61, and had 148 fewer touches. Even among the many 17 who performed at the very least 13 video games, they dropped from 5.07 yards per contact to 4.64, and averaged 97 fewer touches.

It’s unlucky, however likelihood is that Saquon Barkley goes to overlook time in 2025, and when he’s obtainable he received’t be as efficient. In 2018 and 2022 he had over 350 touches, the subsequent 12 months in each seasons he missed three video games early within the season, and in each seasons his yards per contact decreased by 0.4 yards. In each circumstances, as we see above, that’s truly a fairly good consequence for the comply with up season to a big workload.

A 12 months in the past signing Barkley was seemingly in opposition to the grain, Howie Roseman didn’t put money into working backs as a result of they weren’t well worth the cash. However Barkley didn’t get the form of huge contract that made Roseman avoid the place, he bought WR3 cash. Roseman pounced as a result of the market got here to him. Now, giving Barkley a giant contract extension after one excessive utilization season negates some great benefits of having an elite RB at the price of a complimentary WR.

However so what. The Eagles are defending Tremendous Bowl winners. Yearly groups double down on a roster that has no probability. No group has a greater probability than the Eagles to win the Tremendous Bowl subsequent 12 months. They’re not locking up the core of a 9 to 11 win group and hoping to catch a break. They’re not locking up an getting older roster hoping for a swan music season. That is one of the best group within the league, they usually have a trophy to show it.

A 12 months in the past, the Eagles vibes have been pathetic. As we speak they’re nearly as good as ever, and rewarding a terrific participant for a terrific, Tremendous Bowl successful season simply retains it going. Alongside these strains, don’t be shocked if the group and Darius Slay pull a U-turn once more.

Additionally, it’s exhausting as a fan to care about contracts when a group is nice. To cite soccer government Monchi, “nobody takes a ‘what nice financial outcomes’ banner to the stadium.” Get nice gamers. Coach them up. Win. The Eagles are doing it. Sports activities are purported to be enjoyable, and Saquon Barkley on the Eagles is enjoyable. Go Birds.