The Yankees’ Refusal to Open the Door for Jasson Domínguez Could Prove Costly

By this time a yr in the past, the Yankees had been merely enjoying out the string, battling to keep away from their first dropping season since 1992. Their September was briefly enlivened by the arrival of Jasson Domínguez, a switch-hitting 20-year-old middle fielder who homered off Justin Verlander in his first plate look, however “The Martian” — so named for his otherworldly assortment of instruments — tore his proper ulnar collateral ligament after enjoying simply eight video games. His Tommy John surgical procedure and projected lack of availability early this season led the Yankees to commerce for Alex Verdugo, whom they’ve caught with as their on a regular basis left fielder regardless of his more and more conspicuous lack of manufacturing. As they run neck-and-neck with the Orioles within the AL East race, they’ve bypassed a golden alternative to improve their lineup.

On Tuesday evening in Arlington, the Yankees blew a 4-0 eighth-inning lead, dropping 7-4 when nearer Clay Holmes blew his main league-leading eleventh save by retiring simply one of many 5 batters he confronted, capped by a walk-off grand slam by Wyatt Langford. The loss, the Yankees’ fifth in seven video games, knocked them out of first place for the primary time since August 20; at 80-59, they’re now half a sport behind the Orioles (81-59). Whereas the Holmes saga is a narrative for one more day, it shares with the Verdugo/Domínguez state of affairs the Yankees’ cussed refusal to vary what isn’t working within the midst of a playoff race, one the place a first-round bye is at stake. In each circumstances — and in others all through his seven-year tenure — supervisor Aaron Boone has publicly prevented acknowledging gamers’ struggles, sounding notes of Pollyanna-ish optimism which will have earned him loyalty throughout the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the remainder of the group), however too usually seem divorced from actuality.

Within the case of the offense, the Yankees lead the AL in scoring (5.09 runs per sport) and wRC+ (118), however that’s largely a mirrored image of the unimaginable, historic contributions of the majors’ prime two hitters by wRC+, particularly Aaron Choose (.324/.457/.706, 217 wRC+) and Juan Soto (.291/.419/.582, 181 wRC+). Solely three different regulars have a wRC+ of 100 or higher: Austin Wells, who’s doing about 60% of the catching work; Giancarlo Stanton, who missed over 5 weeks in June and July attributable to a left hamstring pressure; and Jazz Chisholm Jr., who has performed all of 25 video games for the Yankees since being acquired on July 27. Moreover Choose and Soto, their different three gamers with no less than 561 plate appearances every have a wRC+ beneath 100, particularly second baseman Gleyber Torres (96), shortstop Anthony Volpe (95 wRC+), and Verdugo (84 wRC+). Volpe’s protection is powerful sufficient that he ranks third on the staff with 3.6 WAR, Torres has hit for a 115 wRC+ within the second half, and Chisholm has shored up their once-dismal third base manufacturing, however first base has been a further drag on the offense, with Anthony Rizzo, Ben Rice, DJ LeMahieu et al combining for only a 74 wRC+ and -1.3 WAR.

The Yankees acquired the then-27-year-old Verdugo in a uncommon commerce with the Pink Sox on December 5. It was a busy week for normal supervisor Brian Cashman, who paused talks with the Padres relating to Soto lengthy sufficient to shut the Boston deal, then accomplished the seven-player Soto blockbuster the subsequent day. Even when Verdugo’s ceiling was as a league-average participant, the reasoning went, the Yankees had netted -0.3 WAR from their left fielders in 2023, and -0.8 WAR from all of their outfielders apart from Choose, who had been restricted to 106 video games by a proper massive toe harm. An outfield with two generational sluggers might stand up to a league-average third.

Which isn’t to say that Verdugo was precisely league common. The previous Prime 100 prospect (no. 48 in 2018, however right down to no. 117 in ’19, each occasions as a 50-FV prospect) hit for a 112 wRC+ with 2.1 WAR in 106 video games as a 23-year-old rookie with the Dodgers in 2019. The next spring, he was the centerpiece of the return within the Mookie Betts commerce, and his 125 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR within the abbreviated 2020 season made for a promising starting amid what was in any other case an unfathomable transfer.

Whereas he cracked our Commerce Worth record at no. 35 in 2021, by that time Verdugo was already stagnating. From 2021–23, he netted simply 4.3 WAR for the Pink Sox, hitting a tepid .277/.334/.417 (102 wRC+) in 1,850 PA. He by no means hit greater than 13 homers in a season, struggled in opposition to lefties regardless of ample alternative (68 wRC+ in 532 PA), and turned in uneven protection metrics (5.5 UZR, 5 DRS, -9 FRV), primarily within the corners. He fell off our Commerce Worth record as shortly as he had appeared, and wore out his welcome in Boston. In 2023, supervisor Alex Cora benched him twice, as soon as for an absence of hustle whereas working right into a vital out, and as soon as for exhibiting up late, apparently not for the primary time.

By 2023, when he hit for only a 98 wRC+, Verdugo’s inventory had fallen sufficient to foist him upon a division rival, albeit for a stable return — righties Richard Fitts, Nicholas Judice, and Greg Weissert — provided that he had only one yr of membership management remaining. That mentioned, of that group, solely Fitts cracked Boston’s Prime Prospects record, as a 40-FV starter (Weissert, beforehand a 40-FV prospect, amassed an excessive amount of massive league time to qualify as a rookie). Boone sounded notably upbeat relating to the newcomer. “He’s a very good two-way participant — defends effectively within the corners and clearly [has a] actually good bat-to-ball [ability], left-handed,” he instructed reporters. “I really feel like there’s an edge he performs the sport with, so I’m enthusiastic about this.”

Verdugo began robust, hitting .267/.358/.446 (127 wRC+) with 4 homers in March and April, however he hasn’t hit for greater than an 89 wRC+ in any full calendar month since:

Verdugo’s 84 wRC+ is the eighth-lowest amongst batting title qualifiers, with 5 of the gamers beneath him no less than enjoying positions of better defensive accountability; all have a better WAR mark than Verdugo’s 0.6. Measured from Could 1, Verdugo’s 72 wRC+ is the fifth-lowest amongst qualifiers and the worst amongst left fielders. Both means, these are objectively horrible numbers for a nook outfielder on a staff with championship aspirations, notably a participant to whom the staff has no dedication past this yr.

To be honest, whereas his 49.1% groundball charge is his highest since 2021, Verdugo is making considerably higher contact than his numbers counsel, and falling in need of his Statcast anticipated numbers. However these are nothing to put in writing house about, and characterize a decline from the previous two years:

Verdugo’s hard-hit and barrel charges, in addition to his xSLG and xwOBA, rank anyplace from the twenty seventh to thirty eighth percentiles. There’s no development together with his batted ball stats to counsel he’s all of the sudden turned a nook:

Even with good protection (7 DRS, 3.4 UZR, 3 FRV), Verdugo has been barely price greater than half a win. As for Domínguez, as a result of he signed for a staff report $5.1 million bonus on July 2, 2019, he “immediately grew to become probably the most celebrated Yankees prospects in current reminiscence,” as Baseball America wrote. His arrival was hotly anticipated, although heading into 2023 he was “merely” fiftieth on our Prime 100 Prospects record and third on the Yankees record as a switch-hitting 50-FV prospect. He’s at the moment no. 27 on The Board, nonetheless as a 50-FV prospect.

As a result of Domínguez cut up his 2022 season between Low-A Tampa and Excessive-A Hudson Valley earlier than ending with a 10-game cameo at Double-A Somerset, he didn’t determine within the Yankees’ quick plans for ’23. Returning to Somerset, he hit .254/.367/.414 (118 wRC+) in 109 video games, with dramatic enchancment from the primary half to the second. Because the Yankees’ season slipped away in August, they started turning over their roster, a course of that included releasing Josh Donaldson after he’d accomplished a rehab project and letting Harrison Bader depart by way of waivers. After Domínguez laid waste to the Worldwide League in a nine-game cease at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre (.419/.514/.581), he acquired the decision, and crushed a three-run, 360-foot reverse area house run off Verlander in his first plate appearances; at 20 years and 206 days, he grew to become the youngest Yankee and fifth-youngest participant general to homer in such vogue.

Domínguez added three extra homers in his subsequent seven video games, hitting .258/.303/.677 by means of 31 PA, all whereas enjoying by means of discomfort in his proper (throwing) elbow. When he struggled to hit the ball laborious throughout batting apply, the Yankees despatched him for an MRI, which revealed the tear. He underwent Tommy John surgical procedure on September 20; the process was anticipated to maintain him out of motion for 9 to 10 months. He started his rehab project with Tampa on Could 14, simply in need of eight months from his surgical procedure, and moved as much as Somerset after 4 video games; he DHed for his first 10 video games between the 2 stops earlier than returning to middle area on Could 29.

On June 4, Domínguez returned to Scranton, the place he hit .389/.405/.639 in his first 9 video games earlier than being sidelined by a strained indirect for about six weeks, from mid-June to late July. He hasn’t proven as a lot energy since returning, and has hit .299/.357/.455 (112 wRC+) in 168 PA at Scranton general, and .333/.379/.519 in 58 PA since his one-game cameo with the Yankees; although extra skilled in middle, he’s performed 52 video games in left over the previous two seasons. Allowed to roster a twenty seventh participant for his or her Little League Basic sport at Williamsport on August 18, the staff referred to as him up and began him in left area. He went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and a groundout, then returned to Scranton.

The Yankees might have tabbed Domínguez on September 1, when groups had been allowed so as to add one place participant and one pitcher, however as a substitute they referred to as up Duke Ellis, an 26-year-old lefty-swinging outfielder who handed by means of the White Sox, Mets, and Mariners’ organizations this yr earlier than being plucked off waivers by the Yankees on August 26; he’s a pinch-running/defensive substitute sort who performed eight video games and stole 4 bases whereas going 0-for-4 with Chicago. As he was on the 40-man roster earlier than September 1, Domínguez continues to be postseason-eligible, however the resolution to not promote him has opened the staff as much as widespread criticism. Boone has defended the non-move in typical vogue, pointing to “quite a lot of actually good at-bats and a few powerful matchups in Washington” for Verdugo, as if a three-game collection in opposition to the league’s third-worst staff final week outweighed 4 months of substitute stage play.

Relating to Domínguez, Boone mentioned this:

“When he comes up right here, you’re going to wish to play him every single day. He’ll proceed to stay in that dialog. During the last couple of weeks, he’s beginning to play effectively from getting back from the indirect harm. Robust name proper now. It doesn’t imply that it received’t change in a few days, per week, two weeks, no matter it’s. However it’s essential for him to proceed to play proper now.”

To those eyes, “received’t change in a few days” reads like a supervisor who is aware of the goal date for the participant’s call-up however received’t publicly reveal it, lest the staff be accused of service time shenanigans. MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch was among the many Yankees beat writers doing a little math:

Jasson Dominguez will retain his rookie standing for 2025 supplied he doesn’t exceed 130 profession at-bats (he has 35 proper now). Holding his rookie standing for ’25 permits the Yankees to obtain a draft choose after the primary spherical in 2026 if Dominguez wins the 2025 AL Rookie of the…

— Bryan Hoch ?? (@BryanHoch) August 30, 2024

Nevertheless, as Baseball America’s JJ Cooper and Matt Eddy and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner have famous, the Yankees wouldn’t qualify to obtain a Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) draft choose if Domínguez had been to win Rookie of the 12 months in 2025 as a result of he’s already amassed over 60 days of service time, as he was on the most important league IL whereas recovering from surgical procedure; solely when his rehab clock ran out on June 12, simply earlier than his indirect pressure, was he formally optioned. Domínguez will stay rookie eligible subsequent season if he finishes 2024 with fewer than 45 days on the lively roster (by our depend, he has 11) and 130 at-bats (as famous above, he has 35). “The one service time profit the Yankees might get with having Domínguez stay within the minor leagues is conserving out of the Tremendous Two designation,” wrote Kirschner. “That will be a stretch if it had been a consideration for the Yankees.”

Nonetheless, the outlet within the lineup persists, and the Yankees’ complacency in direction of it’s a present to the Orioles as the 2 groups battle for seeding. Whereas there’s no assure that Domínguez would outproduce Verdugo, the incumbent has set a ridiculously low bar to clear, and there’s no good motive to not tackle certainly one of their many issues by giving the rookie a glance.