Since Josh Naylor didn’t signal an extension with the Guardians throughout his pre-arbitration years, it has all the time appeared like there was a ticking clock on the primary baseman’s time within the Cleve. With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stick with the franchise, a have a look at Cleveland’s extension historical past during the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the straightforward reality that the Guards just about by no means signal gamers to long-term extensions for vital salaries as soon as they get inside a yr or two of free company.
Naylor is now coming into his closing season of group management, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM wage in his final journey by the arbitration course of. It’s a pleasant increase from his $6.5MM wage in 2024, and since arbitration calculations are likely to closely weigh conventional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely money in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.
A peek on the extra superior metrics is a bit more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was strong however not fairly elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023. That prior season noticed Naylor take pleasure in a .326 BABIP, whereas the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP. Most of Naylor’s manufacturing additionally got here within the first three months of the season, and it may very well be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor carrying down because the yr progressed. On the plus facet, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast classes, and he was a much more affected person hitter than in years previous, with a 9.2% stroll fee that can also be a profession finest.
All this being mentioned, even “solely” a repeat of his 2024 season ought to put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a profitable free agent deal when he reaches the open market subsequent winter. It additionally very probably places him out of Cleveland’s value vary over the long run, and fairly presumably even for the 2025 marketing campaign.
The Guards had some elevated attendance at Progressive Discipline through the common season they usually acquired a pleasant income enhance from internet hosting six playoff video games, but the group may even expertise some stage of dropoff of their broadcasting {dollars}. MLB itself will now be dealing with the native distribution of Guardians video games after the Diamond Sports activities Group backed out of its authentic contracts with the Guards and 10 different groups, which implies that the Guardians will obtain some however not the entire broadcast income they’d’ve obtained beneath the phrases of their earlier deal.
In a world the place the Guardians have been nonetheless getting all of that TV cash, odds are Naylor would nonetheless have been traded, simply because that’s how the Guards have historically finished enterprise. And naturally, it isn’t an absolute assure that the primary baseman will probably be on the transfer this offseason. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti won’t discover a proposal to his liking, or possession might approve a barely greater payroll to make one other run with what appears to be like like a successful core. Naylor might then be shopped on the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in competition, or saved by his final remaining season of group management after which very probably let go in free company. That latter state of affairs would at the least put Cleveland in place to land a draft choose as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying provide and signed elsewhere.
Promoting excessive on Naylor this winter would possibly land greater than only a draft choose, nevertheless. Naylor’s title has already surfaced in previous commerce rumors, because the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor final winter. Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch in all probability takes them out of the operating, but Seattle and Pittsburgh are each nonetheless focusing on first base assist, and offensive assist in common.
Whereas neither the M’s or Pirates are anticipated to be large spenders in free company anyway, Naylor stands out as a serious backup plan for any group that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the 2 largest first basemen on the free agent market. For one yr and round $12MM, Naylor isn’t an enormous splurge even for smaller-market golf equipment, or golf equipment just like the Guardians who’re dealing with broadcasting considerations. Broadly groups who’ve a transparent or potential want at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former group) might be part of the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors. The Tigers or Royals might additionally technically match on this record however Cleveland is much less prone to transfer Naylor to a division rival.
Because the Guardians have a number of uncertainty of their beginning rotation subsequent yr, groups which have pitching to supply might need a leg up in commerce talks. The Guards’ standard tactic of pursuing at the least one prospect and at the least one speedy MLB-ready participant in trades may very well be restricted by the truth that Naylor is just managed for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets through the 2020-21 offseason.
There’s additionally the matter of how the Guardians will change Naylor of their lineup. Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a possible lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Main League PA this season. The Guards is perhaps assured sufficient in a mix of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base within the occasion that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran may very well be acquired to offer extra depth. It may simply be argued {that a} Guardians group even with Naylor again continues to be in want of extra offense, so buying and selling Naylor might put Cleveland in want of discovering an excellent greater bat for the outfield.
The trade-and-replace routine has turn out to be acquainted over time in Cleveland, and the fanbase would possibly grit their tooth on the concept of dealing away one other distinguished participant for payroll-related causes. Shifting Naylor specifically has a singular layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably stay on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking apart the enjoyable concept of a household connection on the coronary heart of the lineup.
Nonetheless, the Guardians’ tactic of buying and selling gamers moderately than simply letting them stroll in free company has allowed the membership to repeatedly reload each the farm system and the energetic roster. Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless monitor file together with his offers, but Antonetti’s excessive batting common on the commerce market has helped the Guards submit successful data in 10 of the final 12 seasons, with seven postseason journeys in that span. Discovering the suitable match on a Naylor commerce this winter would possibly end in Cleveland getting again to the playoffs subsequent fall.
