Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom is about to start a rehab project this week. The righty himself tells Jeff Wilson of Rangers At the moment (X hyperlink) that he’ll probably begin for Double-A Frisco on Thursday. Supervisor Bruce Bochy says that it’ll both be Thursday or Friday, which would be the first of 4 rehab outings, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning Information on X. If all goes in line with plan, the righty could possibly be again within the majors by Sept. 10.
deGrom underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in June of final yr and is now about 14 months faraway from that process. As soon as upon a time, it appeared as if deGrom can be a part of a trio of heroes using in to assist the Rangers within the second half of 2024. Tyler Mahle additionally underwent Tommy John surgical procedure final yr and was slated for a midseason return whereas Max Scherzer opened the season on the IL after present process offseason again surgical procedure.
The 2023 World Collection champions hoped that they may keep afloat by way of the primary half of 2024 with a robust offense and a rotation combine consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Grey, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning and others. Ideally, they’d have gotten stronger all year long and made a robust push to defend their title.
It hasn’t precisely performed out that approach, sadly. The group’s hitters have slashed a collective .239/.308/.381 for a 94 wRC+, placing them forward of simply seven groups within the majors. On prime of that, the pitching has been a difficult carousel for the membership all yr. As a result of varied illnesses, nobody on the pitching employees has reached 130 innings pitched but whereas Eovaldi and Heaney are the one guys with greater than 100 frames. Lorenzen was traded to the Royals on the deadline and each Grey and Scherzer are at present on the IL.
The mix of accidents and a few struggles across the roster have bumped the Rangers towards the again of the American League playoff race. They’re 11 video games again of the Astros within the West after which 12.5 video games out of a wild-card spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them only a 0.2 p.c probability of cracking the postseason whereas the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are barely extra bullish at 0.8 p.c.
At this level, the membership is probably going viewing deGrom’s return much less as a spark plug for a 2024 postseason push and extra about getting a couple of begins underneath his belt in preparation for the 2025 marketing campaign. He and the Rangers signed a five-year, $185M deal heading into 2023, although he’s solely been capable of make six begins on that deal up to now as a consequence of his aforementioned surgical procedure.
The membership managed to win the World Collection final yr even with out him, however there are nonetheless three years left on that deal, making him a key a part of their subsequent chapter. The righty has been one of many higher pitchers on the earth over the previous decade, although the accidents have been a difficulty in recent times.
From 2014 to the current, he has a 2.53 earned run common in 1,356 1/3 innings pitched, placing out 31 p.c of batters confronted whereas solely strolling 5.8 p.c. Amongst pitchers with at the least 700 innings in that point, solely Clayton Kershaw has a decrease ERA whereas solely Scherzer and Chris Sale prime deGrom by way of strikeout fee.
In recent times, deGrom has supplied even greater high quality however with much less amount. He topped 200 innings from 2017-19 however hasn’t even hit 100 since. The 2020 season was shortened to only 60 video games by the pandemic after which deGrom missed time within the two subsequent seasons as a consequence of proper facet tightness, proper forearm tightness and a stress response on his proper scapula.
From 2020 to the current, he has tossed 254 2/3 innings with a 2.12 ERA and an unbelievable 42 p.c strikeout fee. That punchout fee is tops amongst all pitchers with at the least 250 innings in that stretch with Spencer Strider a distant second at 36.9 p.c whereas solely reliever Emmanuel Clase bests deGrom within the ERA division.
At this level, it’s anybody’s guess what sort of kind deGrom can be in when he returns. He’s now 36 years previous and coming off a prolonged damage absence. He additionally hasn’t been capable of make greater than 15 begins in a season since 2019.
The Rangers are set to lose each Scherzer and Heaney to free company in a few months. Eovaldi could possibly be becoming a member of them as his deal has a conditional $20M participant possibility that he unlocks if he totals 300 innings pitched over 2023 and 2024 or finishes within the prime 5 in Cy Younger voting this yr. Even when he unlocks that possibility, he would possibly flip it down and head to the open market since he’s having a robust season and will safe an even bigger assure over an extended deal in free company.
If Eovaldi does depart, then the 2025 Ranger rotation on paper is deGrom, Grey, Mahle, Dunning and Bradford with each Grey and Mahle slated totally free company after subsequent yr. Jack Leiter and Owen White are every on the 40-man roster, however each have handled management issues.
Taken all collectively, deGrom’s kind within the coming years figures to be a big issue for the Rangers, contemplating how a lot they’ve invested in him and that there’s not plenty of long-term certainty within the rotation image.
