Why the Seattle Seahawks won’t trade star receiver DK Metcalf

The tip of the primary offseason of the Mike Macdonald period for the Seattle Seahawks is rapidly approaching, with simply obligatory minicamp remaining forward of a 5 and a half week break earlier than coaching camp. That, in fact, signifies that the slowest of sluggish information seasons for the NFL is simply across the nook, however with a brand new teaching employees and new methods in place on either side of the ball there might be loads to debate.

With that in thoughts, one of many matters that may stay entrance and heart over the subsequent yr or so is how the staff ought to deal with the contract state of affairs of DK Metcalf. Many followers have already known as for the staff to commerce Metcalf as a result of $29.5M cap hit he’s set to hold in the course of the 2025 season, regardless of the truth that he has been one of the crucial productive receivers within the historical past of the NFL by means of the primary 5 seasons of his profession.

Particularly, many followers are fast to level out that Metcalf’s present contract has him because the tenth highest paid wideout within the NFL, regardless that the one time he’s completed within the prime ten within the NFL in receiving yards was in the course of the no protection allowed 2020 COVID yr that noticed inflated offensive manufacturing throughout the league in the course of the first half of the season. In his different 4 seasons Metcalf has completed thirty fourth (2019), twenty eighth (2021), sixteenth (2022) and 18th (2023) within the league in receiving yards, which has irked many followers hoping for the dominance of 2020 to repeat.

With that in thoughts, nevertheless, what Metcalf has performed is stay extremely constant, lacking only a single recreation over the period of his NFL profession. That reality has allowed him to be the eleventh best receiver within the league in the course of the 5 years he has been within the league, which means the subsequent time a productive, younger receiver receives a brand new contract extension, Metcalf’s cap value might be proper in keeping with his manufacturing relative to different receivers within the league.

That, actually, gained’t silence these calling for him to be traded, however the actuality is that the majority receivers drafted don’t produce wherever close to what Metcalf has offered to date in his profession. Even the extremely wanted first spherical extensive receivers don’t produce on the degree followers anticipate, as Sam Bruchhaus of Sumer Sports activities famous again in Could.

For many who suppose the careers of Nate Burleson (5,630 yards, 39 touchdowns) or Eric Decker (5,816 yards, 58 TD) aren’t value a primary spherical choose, the truth is that the median profession manufacturing for a primary spherical extensive receiver is round 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. These are usually not rookie contract manufacturing numbers, they’re for the whole profession of the participant.

For comparability, Metcalf has already recorded 5,332 receiving yards and 43 touchdowns whereas nonetheless simply 26 years previous. So, for individuals who wish to commerce Metcalf for a primary spherical choose, the truth is that even when the Seahawks rotated and used that first spherical choose to pick a receiver, there’s a really excessive in all probability they’d get much less manufacturing out of that receiver than they might out of Metcalf over the subsequent 4 years.

At this level some are nearly sure to hurry to the feedback and argue that there’s a distinction between receivers taken earlier within the first spherical in comparison with these taken later within the first spherical, however the actuality is the median manufacturing is are usually not all that totally different.

Receivers chosen with picks 1-16: 4,500 yards & 28 touchdowns
Receivers chosen with picks 17-32: 3,900 yards and 20 touchdowns

That is the half the place those that are in favor of buying and selling Metcalf will argue that the Seahawks would be capable of commerce him for a number of picks, corresponding to the primary and the third the Philadelphia Eagles gave the Tennessee Titans for A.J. Brown. That concept, nevertheless, ignores the truth that within the NFL groups don’t commerce for gamers, they commerce for gamers on a selected contract. Within the case of Brown the Eagles acquired a participant about to enter their age 25 season with a yr remaining on his rookie contract.

The 4 yr extension the Eagles gave Brown put him below contract for 5 seasons at a complete cap value of simply over $100M, a degree of flexibility a staff wouldn’t have when buying Metcalf’s $13M wage for 2024 and $18M wage in 2025. That’s earlier than entering into the truth that a 25 yr previous participant is extra useful than a 27 yr previous participant due to the expectation of an extra two years of manufacturing obtainable, which means any compensation obtained for buying and selling Metcalf can be lower than what was obtained for Brown.

Whatever the compensation obtained, although, the straightforward actuality is that typically gamers don’t pan out, even extremely touted first spherical prospects. For the reason that Eagles despatched a primary and a 3rd to the Titans, Brown has hauled in 194 passes to the tune of two,952 receiving yards and 18 touchdowns. In the meantime, Tennessee used the primary spherical choose it obtained from the Eagles to draft Treylon Burks, who has 665 receiving yards and a single landing to date in his profession. It’s unimaginable to shut the e-book on Burks at this level provided that he stays simply 24 years previous, however the actuality is that he’s now no larger than fourth on the depth chart behind DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and will wind up as a primary spherical particular groups participant in accordance with new Titans head coach Brian Callahan.

Now, certain, the Seahawks might save a ton of cap house by buying and selling Metcalf, however what precisely good would that do? Enable them to expire and signal somebody like Jamal Adams or Luke Joeckel or Phil Haynes or another participant whose pay far outweighs their manufacturing? Followers are fast to complain about Metcalf carrying a $24.5M or $29.5M cap hit, however is it someway higher to provide $24M to Phil Haynes, Luke Joeckel and Ziggy Ansah?

So, sure, Seattle might commerce one of the crucial productive younger receivers within the historical past of the NFL, however the actuality is that they gained’t as a result of the return on such a commerce would possible be far lower than what Metcalf will present.