Will Leclerc grab his chance to win in Baku

It’s arduous to consider that the roll-call of grand prix winners across the Baku Metropolis Circuit, together with Nico Rosberg, Daniel Ricciardo and Valtteri Bottas, doesn’t characteristic the motive force who now has 4 pole positions in Azerbaijan to his title.

Charles Leclerc will lead the sector away on Sunday’s formation lap for the fourth consecutive yr, nonetheless in pursuit of his first victory in Baku.

The Ferrari driver’s confidence is as excessive because it has been all season, having overwhelmed the McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris to the chequered flag final day out in Monza. And with Norris properly down the grid following a poorly-timed yellow flag in Q1, Leclerc solely has one McLaren to concern himself with on Sunday. Particularly as the 2 Crimson Bulls of Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen are fourth and sixth, respectively.

Though Leclerc has began from pole twice in 2024, that is solely his second pole of the yr earned by being the quickest in qualifying after Monaco – which he received. Provided that Ferrari has tended to be stronger in race trim than qualifying, the pole winner is of course feeling good heading into Sunday.

Ferrari are typically faster in race trim – ominous for his or her pursuers

“I didn’t do a lap with excessive gasoline, nevertheless it’s been a fairly robust level of the automobile this yr,” Leclerc mentioned after qualifying. “So I’m not apprehensive going into tomorrow’s race, however clearly we have to do issues proper.

“I’ll must do a little bit of homework tonight so as to prepare for tomorrow, however I’m not too apprehensive that we’ll do one of the best job with our bundle after which we’ll see whether or not it’s ok to win the race tomorrow or not.”

If he is ready to win, there’s greater than only a victory within the providing for him. Ought to Leclerc win and Norris fail to attain a degree, he’ll bounce the McLaren driver to grow to be the closest driver to Verstappen within the championship.

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Climate

Drivers could have loads to concern themselves with over the course of Sunday’s race. Nonetheless, rain is not going to be one thing they should fear about.

As anticipated heading into the weekend, there’s nearly zero danger of rain anticipated for the race, with brilliant, sunny skies prone to be overhead. Ambient temperatures round 26C means situations for the race can be much like that in qualifying.

The one distinction, doubtlessly, is greater winds. Southerly gusts of as much as 42kph are predicted through the race, which may add an additional layer of problem for drivers on high of what’s already a low-grip circuit this weekend.

Begin

Start, Baku, 2023 Azerbaijan Grand Prix — Baku options one of many shortest runs to show one

At underneath 100 metres from pole place to the primary nook, this is without doubt one of the shortest begins of your complete season. It’s little shock, subsequently, that the motive force on pole typically retains the lead over the opening lap.

Within the seven races held in Baku to this point, the motive force on pole has led into flip two on six events. The one time they haven’t was when Perez beat Leclerc off the road in 2022, benefiting from being on the within line to take the lead.

Nonetheless, this yr, pole place could possibly be much more of a profit for Leclerc. The low grip provided by the unwashed streets may make the precise aspect of the grid, which is the racing line, considerably grippier than the left aspect, the place Piastri will begin from.

However even when Leclerc stays forward on the opening lap, it will likely be important that he escapes past a second of whoever is behind him to keep away from falling sufferer to DRS. Final yr, he couldn’t and was shortly picked off by Verstappen on lap three, then Perez on lap six.

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Technique

Just like the final spherical at Monza, technique for Baku is a reasonably easy affair. A one cease technique, beginning on mediums and becoming the arduous tyres for the second stint.

Pierre Gasly, Alpine, Baku City Circuit, 2024 — Unwashed observe floor can be harder on tyres

That has been the case for the final two races right here, however the wildcard menace posed by a sudden Security Automobile can’t be ignored. A number of groups have been proactive of their tyre utilization by means of the weekend to date to cowl that precise chance.

“The 2-stop solely turns into credible if there’s a Security Automobile within the second half of the race,” mentioned Pirelli’s Mario Isola. “That’s in all probability why many drivers have held again two units of arduous tyres for tomorrow afternoon.

“The primary cease ought to come between laps 13 and 20 for many who choose to start out on the mediums, whereas those that depart the grid on hards ought to pit between laps 32 and 38.”

The excessive diploma of observe evolution may additionally show an element, with the overall low grip of the floor growing the danger of tyre graining, which may catch some drivers out because it did in Monza final day out.

Overtaking

Fernando Alonso, Aston Martin, Baku, 2023 — Alonso stunned Sainz with an incredible cross final yr

On paper, Baku needs to be a circuit the place overtaking is greater than doable. Boasting the longest single full-throttle part on the calendar and a DRS zone that reinforces drivers as much as over 340kph – which is 100m longer than it was final yr – there’s fewer extra apparent overtaking factors in System 1 than down to show one.

Such was the case final yr, when Leclerc was swallowed up by the 2 Crimson Bull drivers alongside the pit straight with assistance from the RB19’s super-powered DRS. However there are different passing alternatives, with the second DRS straight exiting flip two making flip three the second-most fashionable passing spot on the circuit. Final yr, Fernando Alonso confirmed that the courageous could make strikes into flip 4 as he mugged Carlos Sainz Jnr on the restart, whereas even the downhill run to show 16 has been recognized to see overtakes prior to now.

Nonetheless, the amount of passes appears to be reducing progressively over time. Whereas the primary ever race in 2016 produced over 60 on-track overtakes, with 50 in 2018 and 2019, final yr’s race had the fewest ever at simply 18. Lando Norris believes passing can be “worse than everybody thinks” on Sunday. However will he be confirmed proper?

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Security Automobiles

There’s a notion that Baku is without doubt one of the true wildcard rounds of the season, the place racing is usually as chaotic as it’s claustrophobic. This notoriety is basically born from the manic races in 2017 and 2018, that noticed 5 Security Automobile deployments and a number of other collisions by means of the sector.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull, Baku, 2023 — Baku’s status for action-packed races is debatable

Nonetheless, Baku is definitely a observe that produces as many tame and uneventful races because it does wild and dramatic ones. Three of the seven races held at Baku have had zero Security Automobile deployments, whereas the inaugural race in 2016 ran fully with out interruption.

The current run of seven consecutive rounds with no Security Automobile, and only a single lap of Digital Security Automobile, means that this could be one other quiet race. Nonetheless, the proximity of the boundaries and the restricted run-offs out there imply that it solely takes one mistake by one driver to rework the race.

Such was the case final yr when Nyck de Vries crashed out ten laps into the race, simply as the only spherical of pit stops had been starting. The ensuing Security Automobile, which got here moments after Verstappen pitted from the lead, allowed second-placed Perez to pit the very subsequent lap and emerge forward of his workforce mate, holding onto the lead till the chequered flag.

Any form of intervention round 1 / 4 or three-quarters of the way in which into the race may doubtlessly make the distinction between the winners and losers on Sunday.

One to observe

Lando Norris, McLaren, Baku City Circuit, 2024 — Norris should battle his approach forwards to remain in competition

Plainly nearly each grand prix weekend, there’s one driver from the highest 4 groups who finally ends up beginning deep within the again half of the grid for one motive or one other.

This weekend, Norris is the one whose quantity has come up when destiny forged its die. The motive force who headed into the weekend with clear intention to attempt to take a significant chew out of Verstappen’s championship lead with the lively assist of his workforce mate will as a substitute have to start out from down in sixteenth on the grid.

Norris himself, in trademark vogue, was pessimistic about his prospects of scoring respectable factors on Sunday, arguing that passing could be tougher than many would anticipate even with the prolonged DRS zone. However Norris is preventing for a world championship for the primary time in his profession – a minimum of, that’s what his workforce believes. So now could be the time for him to ship the form of ‘again towards the wall’, preventing efficiency that any potential world champion could be anticipated to point out in such a scenario.

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