The Mets head to London for a World Tour sequence in opposition to the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York owns a 27-35 report that has them above simply the Rockies and Marlins within the Nationwide League. They’re remarkably solely 3.5 video games out of the Wild Card race, a testomony to the NL’s mediocrity past its prime 4 groups. There are six golf equipment between the Mets and the present last playoff crew, the Padres.
If the Mets don’t make vital enhancements within the subsequent six-plus weeks, they’ll head into deadline season as a vendor. Impending free brokers are all the time probably the most obvious commerce candidates. The Mets don’t have any scarcity of leases they will market. Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5MM participant possibility for subsequent season), J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Jake Diekman may all transfer. But there’s no extra attention-grabbing Mets’ commerce candidate than their first baseman.
Pete Alonso is just a few months from his first journey to the open market. He reportedly declined a $158MM extension provide final summer time. President of baseball operations David Stearns made clear all through the offseason that whereas the Mets had little interest in buying and selling Alonso over the winter, they didn’t anticipate reopening extension negotiations earlier than he hit free company.
That ought to spur loads of commerce hypothesis because the deadline approaches. That’s evidently already taking place in entrance workplaces outdoors of Queens. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this week that a number of rival common managers count on the Mets to commerce Alonso earlier than the deadline. That appears extra like knowledgeable hypothesis than a suggestion that his identify has come up in commerce talks thus far.
Will talks achieve reputable traction within the coming weeks? There’s an easy argument for the Mets to maneuver Alonso. They evidently don’t plan on holding him from testing the free agent market. Alonso will start his subsequent contract in his age-30 season. When Stearns was working baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers most popular to not make investments closely in defensively-limited sluggers. He clearly has much more sources at his disposal now, however it’s truthful to wonder if Alonso is the kind of participant round whom Stearns needs to construct.
That’s significantly true with a slight downturn in Alonso’s batted ball metrics. He’s nonetheless able to hitting the ball as onerous anybody, however he has performed so much less steadily over the previous couple seasons. The Polar Bear’s charge of onerous contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) peaked at 47.3% again in 2021. It dropped by just a few factors in every of the following two seasons. This yr’s 40.1% onerous contact charge is a match for final season’s. It locations Alonso 129th out of 263 certified hitters.
The dip in onerous contact charge hasn’t made Alonso a foul hitter, in fact. He’s hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers throughout 267 plate appearances. After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Subject and a depressed league run atmosphere, that’s 27 proportion factors higher than common. Alonso stays a middle-of-the-order bat, however it’s a barely regarding development for a participant whose sport is constructed on energy.
If the entrance workplace has considerations about Alonso’s long-term projection, a commerce could be probably the most wise choice. The Mets would get little or no in return in the event that they let him stroll in free company. They’d make him a qualifying provide, however they’d solely obtain a decide after the fourth spherical if he indicators elsewhere. As a luxurious tax payor, they’re entitled to the bottom compensation for shedding a certified free agent. The commerce affords they obtain this summer time will surely be higher than that, even when Alonso’s restricted management window and $20.5MM arbitration wage make it unlikely they’d get any top-tier prospects in return.
For the Mets to maintain Alonso, they’d have to imagine there’s a sensible path to the postseason in 2024 and/or be ok with their probabilities of retaining him in free company. Making the playoffs this yr isn’t inconceivable, however they’ve put themselves in a gap with their poor begin. Holding Alonso would most likely be extra concerning the latter state of affairs — an indication they’re assured that he’ll keep in New York after seeing what different groups will provide.
Proprietor Steve Cohen is able to outbidding anybody. He’s presumably eager on retaining Alonso, who has confirmed himself in New York and has been a fan favourite since his electrifying rookie season. But the Mets have been comparatively restrained within the final two offseasons after their frenzied effort to spend their approach into competition in 2021 didn’t fairly pan out. (The Mets did win 101 video games in 2022, however they adopted up a first-round playoff exit with final yr’s 75 wins.) The Mets appear to be gearing up for a bidding battle with the Yankees and others on Juan Soto, which may take a number of the precedence away from Alonso.
It’s at the very least value contemplating the chance that the Mets commerce Alonso earlier than making an attempt to deliver him again subsequent winter. That’s not unparalleled however doesn’t occur typically, significantly with gamers on the prime of the market. A deadline commerce sometimes displays an understanding that the crew and participant aren’t going to line up on contract figures.
How will the Mets deal with the scenario? Is Alonso going to be on the transfer this summer time?
Picture courtesy of USA In the present day Sports activities.
