I’ve been pondering Yusei Kikuchi’s commerce deadline destiny for months. That sounds overly particular – there are such a lot of gamers that get traded yearly. Why marvel about this one man? He has a 4.75 ERA this 12 months and a 4.72 mark for his profession. He’ll be a free agent at 12 months’s finish. Months? Shouldn’t I’ve been doing one thing extra helpful with my time? Most likely. However hey, now I’m in a greater place to write down about this notably astounding deadline transaction: Final evening, the Blue Jays traded Kikuchi to the Astros in trade for a bountiful crop of younger gamers: Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner.
Kikuchi turns analysts like me into Fox Mulder: We need to imagine. We’re speaking a couple of man with one of many prettiest fastballs in baseball, interval. It has nice form. He throws laborious, sitting 94-96 mph and topping out round 99. Stuff fashions like it. PitchingBot thinks it’s the nastiest fastball thrown by a starter, and tied for the general finest (with Sonny Grey’s fastball) after contemplating location. Stuff+ is skeptical, comparatively talking – it thinks the fastball is the third-best amongst starters, behind the warmers of Kutter Crawford and Zack Wheeler.
Kikuchi throws a pleasant slider to enrich the fastball, 88-90 mph and with sharp chew for a gyro slider. He rounds out his arsenal with a tough, two-plane curveball and a weird slider that appears to drift and fade concurrently. He does it from a cool arm slot and with a misleading supply. When Kikuchi is on, he’s able to torching opposing lineups singlehandedly. His first 10 begins of this season had been phenomenal: 2.64 ERA, 2.61 FIP, a 26% strikeout price, and a minuscule 5.5% stroll price. He’d been steadily bettering in Toronto, and this 12 months regarded like his breakout.
Since then, issues have gone fairly poorly. I’m speaking a couple of 6.87 ERA and 4.67 FIP poorly, 13 homers in solely 12 begins poorly. Kikuchi has gotten shelled repeatedly, and the Jays have plummeted out of the playoff race on the similar time. His timing for his woes might’ve hardly been worse, creating an odd dilemma for the Jays. Kikuchi was on hearth by means of most of June, and the Jays’ playoff odds bounced round between 20 and 40 % throughout that point. When Kikuchi’s perceived commerce worth was at its highest, the crew wasn’t able to promote.
Then he began getting worse, and the Jays’ playoff odds began dipping on the similar time, with the underside falling out across the finish of June, when a seven-game dropping streak, adopted by a 4-6 stretch towards playoff competitors, put them hopelessly far behind within the standings. It was lastly time to commerce Kikuchi – besides, throughout seven begins from Might 26-June 28, he had a 7.12 ERA and peripherals that weren’t a lot better. The good transfer appeared to be holding Kikuchi a bit longer, ready for each a rebound and the commerce deadline to supply some motivated consumers.
So the Jays held, however Kikuchi didn’t enhance a lot. He’s been barely higher in July, however solely barely: 6.59 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and a house run per begin over 5 begins. He managed six or extra innings in solely a kind of begins, besides. However now time has run out, and so Kikuchi’s on the transfer. Or possibly I ought to rephrase: Fortunately, simply earlier than time ran out, it seems that the complete hypothetical decline in Kikuchi’s commerce worth was simply made up. The Astros despatched the Blue Jays an outstanding commerce supply, and now Kikuchi is headed right down to the Gulf Coast to chase the playoffs.
I nonetheless suppose Kikuchi is an efficient choice as a mid-rotation starter. He’s nearly definitely not so good as his early-season kind, however he’s a lot better than he’s carried out over the past two months. His recreation sinks or floats primarily based on what number of residence runs he permits. That’s been the story along with his model-beloved arsenal, too; they’re nice pitches on common, however he leaves each his fastball and slider in harmful areas an excessive amount of for somebody with out big motion. His pitches are extra timing-disruptive than pure bat-missers, and that simply doesn’t work as effectively whenever you depart it middle-middle.
For the Astros, that mixture most likely feels acquainted. A homer-prone pitcher who appears dominant when the ball stays within the yard? Appears like Hunter Brown, or late-career Justin Verlander. However the Astros have struggled to discipline beginning pitchers all 12 months. They misplaced two starters they had been relying on for the entire season in June. Verlander has been out for greater than a month. Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched all 12 months, and his rehab has been rocky; there’s at the moment no timeline for his return. Their rotation has been three strong arms (Framber Valdez, Ronel Blanco, and Brown), after which pray for rain, not the most effective plan in a retractable-roof stadium.
Even worse, Blanco and Brown are going to achieve their profession highs in innings quickly, so the crew is speaking a couple of six-man rotation to guard its arms. Including Kikuchi lessens the load on the highest trio considerably. He’s not precisely an innings eater, however the Astros certainly might be pleased with somebody going on the market each fifth or sixth day and placing up five-plus respectable innings.
One of many guys Houston has turned to for innings in latest weeks is Jake Bloss, the headline of the gamers heading to Toronto within the deal. He’s been superior, a spectacularly quick riser who was a 3rd spherical draft decide solely final 12 months earlier than tearing by means of the minors. He was a breakout small-college participant who transferred to Georgetown in his senior 12 months and impressed towards his hardest competitors but, so he’s been shifting up ranges and stunning folks for 3 years now. A winter within the Houston pitching lab appears to have sharpened his command, and as you may anticipate, he has the crew’s signature rising fastball cooking in 2024.
This isn’t some mirage; he’s throwing a number of plus pitches and might need fairly good command, too. Within the minors, he struck out 27% of batters and allowed little or no laborious contact en path to a sub-2.00 ERA and strong 3.20 FIP. He shredded minor league hitters so comprehensively that I fully perceive why Houston introduced him as much as the majors to see if the magic might proceed, however his first three massive league begins have been tough. Extra particularly, his third main league begin was tough: The A’s launched 4 homers off of him in solely 4 innings. I’m an enormous fan of the potential right here, however I’d ideally give him slightly bit extra time within the minors to develop, and I believe the Astros reached that conclusion as effectively, therefore the commerce.
This may’ve made for a logical one-for-one swap: a fast-rising pitching prospect for a mid-rotation rental. However then, unfathomably, the Astros kicked in considerably extra. We had Bloss as their no. 2 prospect; Joey Loperfido was no. 3 till he graduated from prospect standing earlier this season. He’s an enormous versatile outfielder with true-outcome fever; he has 30-homer energy, takes walks, and strikes out a bunch. Our prospect crew put a forty five FV grade on him as a flexible bench participant with the flexibility to discipline 5 positions (the outfield plus first and second), with an outdoor probability of hitting sufficient to grow to be an on a regular basis participant.
However wait, there’s nonetheless extra. The final participant within the deal is Will Wagner, Billy Wagner’s son and an upper-minors infielder with a contact-over-power method. You’ll be able to most likely image this basic archetype; when it really works out in addition to potential, it’s Brendan Donovan. When it doesn’t, it’s any variety of utility infielders that your crew makes use of to patch holes within the roster. Wagner is hitting .307/.424/.429 with extra strikeouts than walks in Triple-A this 12 months, however I believe that line overstates his probably main league affect. Pitchers are going to assail him with strikes till he begins to make them pay for it, and as you might need realized from how comparable his OBP and slug are, that’s been a battle for him.
Nonetheless, it’s extremely probably that Wagner turns into a part-time contributor within the majors, if solely on the backside of the roster. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this 12 months, and I believe that the Jays’ roster scenario makes it probably that he’ll find yourself on the 40-man because of this. The Astros had been unlikely to have area for him, in order that addition seems like a get-the-deal-over-the-finish-line sweetener.
Solely… why did the Astros want so as to add a sweetener? It is a big win for the Blue Jays, in my view. The Astros are wizards in terms of getting essentially the most out of mid-round draft picks. Bloss, Loperfido, and Wagner are all massive success tales, unheralded picks who’ve far exceeded their expectations. However after doing all that onerous work, the crew rotated and flipped them for a mid-rotation rental.
I perceive why the Astros want Kikuchi. However primarily based on returns on the previous few commerce deadlines, Bloss alone was proper round what I’d anticipate the Jays to get for dealing him. Possibly a Wagner-type participant or two if the Astros had been notably eager to get the deal finished. Loperfido, too? That’s quite a lot of good younger gamers for 2-3 months of a solid-but-not-overwhelming pitcher.
The extra I mull this over in my head, the extra I believe the Astros wished Kikuchi particularly. In the event that they had been calling each crew in baseball and saying “We’d like beginning, and we’ll supply Jake Bloss plus…” somebody would have dealt them an arm in pretty brief order. I’d commerce among the starters who haven’t but been moved (Jack Flaherty and Zack Littell spring to thoughts) for lower than this return, and I believe that their groups may too. This solely is sensible to me if the Astros wished Kikuchi particularly and weren’t keen to overlook their man. That’s how you find yourself making a suggestion that makes analysts throughout the board go “Whoa, actually?”
I believe it’s value bumping expectations of Kikuchi up barely given this context. When a crew desires somebody this badly, it certainly has a purpose. However I additionally suppose the Astros entrance workplace is an odd mishmash of previous and new, and that they’re working at cross functions. The a part of the org that sagely selects faculty pitchers with attention-grabbing peripherals after which helps them unlock new heights of their recreation most likely isn’t the identical half that ships out a mountain of prime prospects for two-plus months of a mid-rotation starter. I perceive the Astros’ motivation within the deal, and but I nonetheless suppose they gave up an excessive amount of.
